Analysis: Attempted Stabbing in Tunis Highlights Lingering Threat of Militancy
Category: Terrorism
Severity: 2 (Low)
Source: Drum Cussac
05/17/2018 (Tunisia) - An attempted stabbing targeting police officers took place in the capital Tunis on Tuesday, 15 May. The assailant was immediately overpowered and arrested, and the incident caused no injuries. The man had attempted to stab two police officers on patrol near the Grande Synagogue on Avenue de La Liberté in the La Fayette area. Security was increased in the area surrounding the synagogue following the attack.
The suspect was identified as a 45-year-old man from Ettadhamen, an impoverished area in the Tunis suburbs. He has been handed over to anti-terror security services. An investigation is ongoing to determine a motive and any possible link to extremist groups. Some local media reports have claimed the perpetrator made anti-Israel statements during the attack, although this has not been independently confirmed. If true, this would be significant as the incident took place amid elevated Israeli-Palestinian tensions due to the relocation of the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem.
The stabbing is a rare act of militancy in the capital, where security has improved since a deadly attack in March 2015. In that incident, three gunmen stormed the Bardo Museum, taking hostages and killing 21 people, mostly European tourists. The Islamic State group (IS) claimed responsibility for the attack. Two other major attacks hit Tunisia in 2015. In June, a gunman with links to IS shot dead 39 European tourists at the Imperial Marhabaat hotel in Port El Kantaoui, some 10km (6.2 miles) north of Sousse. In November, IS claimed a bombing of a bus carrying members of the Tunisian Presidential Security Guard, killing 12. Following the violence, authorities strengthened the security framework and adopted tougher anti-terrorism laws. Security measures have been heightened at strategic sites and authorities have cracked down on militants, dismantling dozens of cells.
Despite these intensified security measures, insurgent-related incidents continue to be periodically reported. Extremists linked to IS and al-Qaeda have targeted soldiers and police in the country, notably in the mountainous areas of Kasserine province near the Algerian border. Militants remain highly resilient and can exploit areas of least resistance to undermine security and stability. Al-Qaeda in particular is reportedly looking to regroup in Tunisia after rival IS has suffered major setbacks. In January, Tunisian security forces killed a senior al-Qaeda-linked militant in a mountainous region along the Tunisian-Algerian border, highlighting the presence of the group. An increase in the frequency of IED and hit-and-run attacks would be a key indicator that militants are gaining traction.
The terrorist threat will likely continue as militants from both groups try to regain momentum. Many IS fighters have also returned home after losing territory in Libya, Iraq and Syria. These individuals are likely to be battle-hardened and trained in operational tactics, and it is highly likely they will attempt to regroup and plot attacks in Tunisia. There is also a realistic possibility of attacks by loosely organised supporters, or those inspired online, who will be able to exploit security weaknesses. Such "lone wolf" attacks are likely to be low capability and opportunistic in nature, and they remain difficult to detect and deter. Likely targets for such attacks include individual members of the security forces and soft targets such as public transport hubs, festivals, tourist areas, bars, restaurants, religious buildings and shopping centres.
Authorities will almost certainly keep security levels high to safeguard against headline-grabbing strikes against security forces, energy and tourism. Extra security measures including armed guards and checkpoints are likely on main roads, at hotels, at tourist sites and at airports. Focal points for terrorist activity are likely to be tourism assets in Tunis and the coastal resorts of Monastir, Djerba, and Sousse. The risk of attacks against government and security targets will remain elevated in governorates bordering Algeria and Libya, particularly Le Kef, Kasserine, Ben Guerdane, and Medenine.
Copyright © 2024 Drum Cussac
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