Analysis: No Agreement from Kiir-Machar Meeting as IGAD Leaders Begin to Lose Patience with Stalled Peace Talks
Category: Conflict
Severity: 3 (Moderate)
Source: Drum Cussac
06/22/2018 (South Sudan) - The long-awaited face-to-face meeting between South Sudanese President Salva Kiir and Sudan People's Liberation Movement-in-Opposition (SPLM-IO) leader Riek Machar in Addis Ababa on 20 June ended without any agreement between the pair or apparent positive developments in the ongoing peace negotiations. The meeting came at a critical time as the regional Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) bloc prepared to begin the next round of talks aimed at ending the conflict in South Sudan amid increasing pressure from the US and UN for a ceasefire agreement. Wednesday's meeting highlighted the deep-seated animosity between Kiir and Machar and the difficulties in establishing a peace process in the country but negotiations are expected to continue in Khartoum next week.
The closed-door meeting hosted by Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed was tense and neither Kiir nor Machar gave positive statements before the event despite enthusiasm from IGAD mediators. The summit was the first time the pair had met since the sudden breakdown of the previous peace agreement in July 2016 which resulted in several days of heavy fighting in Juba and Machar fleeing the country after being replaced as South Sudan's First Vice President. Machar has been under house arrest in South Africa since late 2016 but IGAD offered in March to lift the restrictions if the opposition leader renounces violence and pledges not to interfere in the peace process.
Following the meeting, both Machar and Kiir released statements through their respective parties which doused hopes of a breakthrough in peace negotiations. The SPLM-IO criticised the current IGAD-mediated peace process as being unrealistic and instead called for reorganised negotiations along the lines of the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) which ended the 20-year Sudanese civil war and paved the way for the secession of South Sudan in 2011. The opposition also accused the government of continuing to plan large-scale offensives against rebel-held areas in the south of the country. Kiir's statement reinforced the government's established position that, although they were willing to have opposition ministers in a unity government, they would not work with Machar and not allow him to take up his former position as First Vice President. Kiir also expressed concern over the possible lifting of Machar's house arrest, demanding that the opposition leader be relocated to a non-IGAD country outside of the region if he is allowed to leave South Africa.
Although Wednesday's meeting apparently ended without any progress having been made, the Sudanese foreign minister announced on Thursday evening that a second summit between the leaders would be held in Khartoum on 25 June. Ahead of the meeting in Addis Ababa, there had been competition between IGAD members to host Kiir and Machar amid intense diplomatic efforts by the bloc through Kenyan opposition politician Raila Odinga. It is unclear whether the agenda for Monday's meeting will differ from the earlier summit but both leaders are likely to face increased pressure from international actors ahead of the meeting.
IGAD leaders and other international observers have become increasingly frustrated with the South Sudanese government and opposition in recent months as multiple rounds of peace talks failed to bring about a ceasefire agreement. The regional bloc has brought increasing pressure on the leaders to come to an agreement in the latest round of talks amid increased international scrutiny. In May, the US urged the UN to introduce new sanctions on South Sudanese leaders to encourage them to engage in peace negotiations and agree to a ceasefire. The UN Security Council stopped short of imposing targeted sanctions but adopted a resolution on 31 May threatening to freeze the assets of six senior officials; Defence Minister Kuol Manyang Juuk, former army chief Paul Malong, Minister of Information Michael Lueth, Malek Reuben Riak Rengu, governor of Bieh state Koang Rambang and cabinet affairs minister Martin Elia Lomuro. The asset freezes and travel bans are scheduled to be imposed if no South Sudan ceasefire agreement is signed by 30 June but, given the limited support for the measures among Security Council members, it remains to be seen whether they will actually be introduced should the deadline not be met. In recent weeks, the US has also accused various South Sudanese government and rebel leaders of profiting from the conflict and urged other countries in the region, including Kenya and Uganda, to seize their assets.
Although Kiir and Machar have come under increased pressure in recent months to sign a ceasefire agreement, the hostile rhetoric and lack of negotiation in the face-to-face meeting suggests that such an agreement remains unlikely in the medium term. Both leaders are subject to targeted sanctions and have been threatened with further measures but a lack of international consensus on the imposition of sanctions means that these have had a limited effect. Other countries in the region, including Ethiopia, Kenya and Uganda, have failed to back sanctions and asset freezes in the past. Increased international cooperation in peace efforts has the potential to increase pressure on Kiir and Machar in the longer term. However, the government's strong position in the conflict and an increasingly divided opposition leave Kiir less likely to sign a peace settlement without international intervention. Even if an agreement between Kiir and Machar is made at their next meeting on 25 June, the government will still face the difficult task of negotiations with the multitude of other rebel factions in the country including those under the South Sudan Opposition Alliance (SSOA) negotiating bloc.
Copyright © 2024 Drum Cussac
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