Analysis: Clashes over Eastern Oil Terminals Highlight Ongoing Risk from Militancy
Category: Conflict
Severity: 4 (High)
Source: Drum Cussac
06/20/2018 (Libya) - Libya's National Oil Corporation (NOC) said on Monday, 18 June that recent fighting in the country's oil crescent has caused catastrophic damage to two key oil terminals. The clashes began on 14 June, when some 200 armed men led by Ibrahim Jadran, the commander of the Petroleum Facilities Guard (PFG), took control of two of Libya's main oil exporting terminals used by the NOC, which is loyal to Libyan strongman's Khalifa Haftar and his Libyan National Army (LNA). The two terminals, Es-Sidra and Ras Lanur, are located in eastern Libya near Ajdabiya.
In response to the attack, Haftar's LNA launched an offensive on Sunday, 17 June to push the militias out of the oil crescent. The offensive has reportedly included airstrikes targeting militia positions in the area. Due to the recent violence, the NOC has been forced to declare a state of force majeure, suspending oil exports and evacuating its employees from both terminals and surrounding areas. The body said that significant damage had occurred to at least two storage tanks and warned of further damage to oil infrastructure as well as environmental contamination.
Jadhran's PFG controlled the terminals for years following the 2011 ouster and death of longtime leader Muammar Gaddafi. They were eventually forced out by the LNA in September 2016. Jadran said in a recorded video on 14 June following the taking of the oil terminals that his forces were largely made up of PFG members and other groups such as local Tebu and al-Magharba tribesmen. He also said elements from the Benghazi Defense Brigades (BDB), a loose coalition of Islamist groups formed to counter Haftar's LNA in Benghazi were involved. The LNA eventually chased the BDB out of the eastern city in July 2017 during an operation to cleanse the area of Islamists and militants. It is likely that lingering BDB militants have formed sleeper cells in other eastern Libyan cities and remain capable and willing to stage retaliatory attacks following their defeat in Benghazi.
It is likely that the attack on the oil terminals surprised Haftar, whose forces are currently occupied with another operation to clear Islamist militants from the eastern city of Derna. The round offensive against Derna was launched on 7 May. While Haftar has reported steady gains in the city, clashes have resulted in deaths and injuries on both sides. Haftar's forces will likely be unwilling to leave Derna until after it is almost fully conquered for fear that Islamist remnants inside the city will regain momentum and stage counterattacks. As such, the LNA's manpower in its fight to counter Jadran is likely to be weakened, which could lead to a prolonged conflict to regain control of the oil infrastructure.
The fighting highlights the continued risk from militancy in the country, with key infrastructure likely to be the site of militia violence as rival groups continue to battle for control and influence. Libya will struggle to rein in the various armed groups ahead of presidential and parliamentary elections currently planned for 10 December. It is highly likely that insecurity and instability in Libya will persist through the coming months in the run-up to the poll. Clashes between rival armed groups, acts of sabotage and terrorist violence are highly likely in the coming months. Even if elections are held, it will take time to provide the right incentives to curb the activities of the various militia groups on the ground, which continue to seek leverage aimed at improving their own positions. It is likely that key national infrastructure, including seaports, airports, and oil and gas assets, will continue to be flashpoints for militia-linked violence as varying groups compete for control of these structures.
Copyright © 2024 Drum Cussac
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