Analysis: No End in Sight to Ongoing Civil Unrest Following Suspension of Talks
Category: Unrest
Severity: 3 (Moderate)
Source: Drum Cussac
06/20/2018 (Nicaragua) - A dialogue brokered by the Catholic Church between the Nicaraguan government and various opposition and civil society leaders remain suspended as of Wednesday, 20 June, following the Church's allegations on Monday that President Daniel Ortega's administration had not yet formally invited international observers to the country as was a pre-condition for the talks. The dialogue, which some have held up as the best hope for ending the country's ongoing mass unrest, has been on-again, off-again since all sides agreed to come to the table in mid-May. The opposition has alleged that the government has continued to act in bad faith in the streets through violent repression while discussing possible terms for ending the now two-month-long movement. The Church has also been critical of the government's actions, for its use of violence against protesters. Ortega has generally denied all such allegations and instead blamed episodes of unrest on "criminal" elements and/or the protesters themselves, claiming any violence used by security forces was justified on self-defence and public safety grounds.
The current unrest largely began on 18 April after Ortega announced proposed changes to the social security system. Initially led by students at Managua's Polytechnic University, demonstrations quickly grew to decry not just the social security changes but also Ortega's rule as a whole, amid accusations that he had systematically dismantled the checks and balances of Nicaragua's democracy through a combination of pressure tactics and political co-opting such that the country is now essentially a one-party state as run by Ortega and his wife, Vice President Rosario Murillo. The unrest has grown into a nationwide movement that has frequently seen armed clashes between protesters and government (and alleged paramilitary) forces as well as protesters setting up roadblocks on major highways and checkpoints. In the case of the city of Masaya to the capital's south, outright secession from the current Nicaraguan political regime has occurred, as protesters there have essentially taken control of the city and declared it liberated from Ortega's rule, which it no longer recognises as legitimate. The number of individuals killed in the ongoing violence varies from source to source but is generally accepted to be between 175 and 200, with scores more injured.
The crux of the matter, should the Church-brokered dialogue resume, is what concessions (if any) Ortega is willing to grant in order to bring an end to the country's current crisis. Unconfirmed reports indicate that, in private talks with high-level US representatives, Ortega was willing to hold early elections next year even though his term does not technically end until 2021. However, if those accounts were true, Ortega has since backtracked and largely doubled down in his insistence in staying in power, potentially due to a fear of losing his carefully cultivated political base should he show any signs of political weakness and thereby risk a wholescale revolt against him and his family. Indeed, Ortega's 11 years in power since 2007 have been in part dedicated to establishing a kind of political dynasty, as many viewed his wife's accession to the vice presidency during the most recent election as a kind of stepping stone for her running for president outright in 2021. It would seem, however, that Ortega severely miscalculated the popular angst against his years of policies that have eroded democratic norms, as the proposed social security reforms - now scrapped - proved to be the spark needed to bring a cohesive opposition movement to life among ordinary citizens.
The situation remains fluid, and it is unclear how the situation will unfold at this juncture, as one proverbial step forward has often been followed by two steps back. A ceasefire declared on Friday is perhaps the most recent example of this dynamic, as it was followed a day later by alleged government-allied henchmen burning a family alive and opening gunfire on others in an apartment building in Managua, allegedly for the family's refusal to let the government use the space as a sniper outlook. The current suspension of talks is a relatively minor blip, as it concerns only the sending of invitations to certain international figures and organisations by the Nicaraguan government, which can be easily fixed. However, other more difficult hurdles - not the least of which involving continued repression against protesters and the terms of Ortega's political future - may very well cause the talks to break down again, perhaps in a permanent fashion. Should the talks completely collapse, the two most likely outcomes involve either a full-scale revolt or, as seen in the case of regional neighbour Venezuela, a protest movement that is eventually snuffed out due to a combination of protest fatigue and severe repression; the latter case will almost certainly depend on Ortega retaining the loyalty of security forces, which may be a more difficult task than in the case of Venezuela, in which senior figures from the armed forces have quite liberally been integrated into the governing cabinet. The timescale for any outcome also remains opaque, as the status quo has largely continued for some two months now, with neither side seeming willing to publicly give in to the other, and this dynamic has potential for at least medium-term longevity.
Copyright © 2024 Drum Cussac
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