Analysis: Ruling Coalition Moves Ahead with Controversial Electoral Law Changes, Raising Likelihood of Opposition Unrest
Category: Unrest
Severity: 3 (Moderate)
Source: Drum Cussac
06/20/2018 (Senegal) - Following an hours-long and often combative debate on Monday, 18 June, Senegalese lawmakers voted to modify the country's electoral law to alter eligibility requirements for candidates contesting elections. The changes were approved 111 to 14 in parliament, which is dominated by members of the ruling Benno Bokk Yakaar (BBY) coalition, with the opposition's claims that the amendment was illegal and violated legislative procedures, and should therefore be withdrawn, sparking heated arguments between the two sides for most of the day.
Discussions over the electoral law changes have raised political tensions in the country since April, with parliamentary debates between parliamentarians descending into pushing and shoving, police firing tear gas to disperse protesters outside of the building in Dakar, and several opposition figures being arrested. At the heart of the contention is a stipulation requiring all candidates in a presidential election to collect the supporting signatures of 0.8 per cent of registered voters, representing about 52,000 individuals, from each of Senegal's seven regions, and 0.5 per cent for legislative polls. Such requirements had already been in place for independent candidates but have now been extended to political party members as well.
The BBY coalition led by President Macky Sall's Alliance for the Republic (APR) has argued that the amendments were needed to rationalise election candidacies in a country with nearly 300 parties, citing the presence of 47 electoral lists in legislative elections in last July's legislative elections and 2747 lists in local polls in 2014. However, the opposition have criticised the changes, arguing that they are intended to limit the number of potential candidates facing Sall in next year's presidential election as the incumbent seeks a second term. Opposition parties have attempted to rally their supporters to the streets, with mixed success, to denounce what they perceive as undemocratic amendments. Despite the limited turnouts, the government's own response to these mobilisations, forcibly dispersing the protests and detaining high-profile figures, has played into the opposition's hands of framing the Sall administration as being increasingly intolerant of dissent. Indeed, rights groups have expressed concerns about freedom of expression in the country, with several opposition protests having been banned or dispersed by force throughout 2017.
However, it is doubtful to what extent this focus on the administration's crackdowns will resonate with the populace outside of the core opposition base. Prior to the July 2017 legislative elections, the opposition had repeatedly accused the Sall administration of side-lining major rivals on politically-motivated corruption charges in relation to the arrest of Dakar Mayor Khalifa Sall (no relation to the president) and the earlier imprisonment of Karim Wade, the son of former president Abdoulaye Wade, who served between 2002 and 2012. Ultimately, the BBY coalition won the July polls by a landslide as the opposition's strategy failed due to internal divisions, overestimating the appeal and reach of Wade despite his unpopularity in the last few years of the former president's rule.
Going forward, the opposition will likely continue to organise street demonstrations over the electoral changes and attempt to stir up wider anti-government sentiment around flashpoint issues such as recent university protests in the country. A prominent leader, Oumar Sarr, has already called for nationwide rallies on 13 July, although turnouts are likely to be limited to core opposition supporters at this juncture. However, there is a moderate likelihood for mobilisations to gain in intensity and frequency in the medium-term if the government exhibits additional authoritarian tendencies, especially if the country's strong economic growth is not seen as addressing day-to-day socio-economic concerns as the February 2019 presidential election approaches.
Copyright © 2024 Drum Cussac
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