Analysis: Elevated Risk of Unrest and Militancy ahead of 24 June Polls
Category: Unrest
Severity: 3 (Moderate)
Source: Drum Cussac
06/18/2018 (Turkey) - There is an elevated risk of politically-motivated unrest and violence in the run-up to and during Turkey's upcoming 24 June presidential and parliamentary elections. Opposition gatherings organised by the pro-Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) are currently planned to take place on Monday, 18 June in Adana, Aydin, Manisa, and Mersin cities.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been holding daily mass rallies ahead of the election, with a mega-rally for his Justice and Development Party (AKP) taking place in Istanbul on Sunday, 17 June. Rival Muharrem Ince of the centre-left secularist Republican People's Party (CHP) has also been staging frequent rallies drawing large crowds, particularly in the CHP's traditional stronghold of Istanbul's Kadikoy district. The final rally of Ince's campaign will be held in Istanbul on 23 June, with his team claiming to expect two million people in attendance.
There have been a number of violent incidents in recent weeks, highlighting the elevated risk of unrest ahead of the poll amid rising tensions. Four people were killed and 12 others injured on 14 June in Suruc, Sanliurfa province near the border with Syria, during an incident involving supporters of the HDP and activists from the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP). Turkish state news agency Anadolu said the deaths were a result of an armed attack by HDP supporters on AKP campaigners, claiming that elements form the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) were also involved. Two days later on 16 June, security forces detained 19 people, including HDP officials and Sanliurfa candidate Ismail Kapla, for allegedly perpetrating the armed attack.
The Suruc violence was the latest in a series of politically-motivated incidents. Also on 14 June, an attack by ultra-nationalists on an HDP campaigner in Hekimhan district in Malatya province resulted in the injury of seven people. Earlier on 26 May, seven people were injured when National Movement Party (MPH) supporters attacked campaigners of the Iyi (Good) Party in Ankara. The majority of violence has been low-level and one-off, and it is unlikely that widespread violence or militancy will take place. However, as tensions between rival political parties rise in the run-up to the poll, there is a realistic probability that the tempo of such incidents will increase.
Turkey was not due to hold a vote until November 2019, although the Erdogan called for early elections in April. He said that Turkey needed to "overcome uncertainty" amid its ongoing military operations in Syria and Iraq, although critics suggest this was part of a tactic to pre-empt the downward trend due to Turkey's suffering currency and economy and give the opposition less time to mount a substantial challenge. The election is also important as it will create a stronger executive presidency: the new president's office will have sweeping powers that voters narrowly approved in a constitutional referendum last year. An Erdogan victory would give him the ability to shape Turkey's trajectory for many years to come.
Erdogan remains the most popular leader in Turkey and is still the favorite to win the poll. Erdogan's main challenger is Ince of the main opposition group the CHP. Other competitors include Meral Aksener, leader of the new nationalist Iyi party, Temel Karamollaoglu, leader of the Islamist Felicity party, and Selahattin Demirtas of the HDP. Erdogan faces what will likely be his toughest challenge at the ballot box yet, with recent opinion polls suggesting he may win the first round but without an outright majority. As such, there is a high likelihood that the poll will lead to a run-off vote, which would be held on 8 July. Polls suggest would win a run-off vote against Ince or Aksener, although the opposition will focus on drawing away nationalist voters and courting the Kurdish vote.
In parliament, two main coalitions are running, one including the AKP and nationalists and the other including the CHP, Iyi and Felicity. The mixing of the secularist CHP and Islamist Felicity marks a strange partnership, although it highlights the willingness of opposition parties to work together to derail the ruling party. The performance of the HDP, which is running by itself, will be key: if the opposition alliance performs as predicted and the HDP wins 10% of the popular vote, this could see the AKP lose its parliamentary majority. Should the AKP lose its majority to the opposition, which has promised to roll back the constitutional amendments passed last year, there is a realistic probability that Erdogan would dissolve parliament, and the legislature would then probably call new presidential elections in response. Such a scenario would likely prolong the political uncertainty in Turkey and elevate the risk of further politically-motivated unrest and violence.
Copyright © 2024 Drum Cussac
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