Presidential and Parliamentary Elections to be Held on Sunday, 24 June
Category: Unrest
Severity: 2 (Low)
Source: Drum Cussac
06/18/2018 (Turkey) - Turkey is to hold both presidential and parliamentary elections on Sunday, 24 June. The country's incumbent president Recep Tayyip Erdogan called the elections early, ahead of their scheduled date in November 2019, citing a need to 'overcome regional uncertainty'. The move pre-empts a downturn in Turkey's economy and can be seen as an attempt to capitalise on nationalistic sentiment following military victories in Syria and the suppression of Kurdish forces. The winner of the presidential election is to inherit dictatorial powers following a controversial referendum in 2017 which effectively established an executive presidency. The ruling AKP party, which is led by Erdogan, has formed a coalition with the Nationalist Action Party (MHP) and is expected to retain a majority in parliament as well as win the presidency. However in a bid to prevent Erdogan from retaining power and reverse the legislative changes brought into law last year, the largest opposition Republican People's party (CHP) has entered an unprecedented rival coalition with the newly formed grassroots Iyi (Good) party. Should they win a parliamentary majority the CHP coalition has vowed to overturn the executive presidency, a move which may impel a re-elected President Erdogan to dissolve parliament. Should such a scenario occur, the country is likely to enter a period of new political uncertainty.
The presidential election, which involves two rounds of voting, is also being contested by the Kurdish People's Democratic party (HDP) candidate Selahattin Demirtas who is currently imprisoned on charges of terrorism. His ability to run is still uncertain, and should he be prevented from doing so, unrest is likely in eastern Kurdish-dominated regions. Although campaign rallies for all parties have thus far been conducted without incident, the current state of emergency prohibits certain public gatherings and this may lead to clashes between police and opposition protesters in Turkey's major cities. A final round of public speeches will take place on the, 23 June in Ankara where they are likely to attract large crowds.
Members in Turkey during the electoral period are advised to exercise an increased level of vigilance and keep up to date with the latest events through Drum Cussac Risk Monitor alerts. Any protests and political gatherings should be avoided to minimise the risk of exposure to potential crowd disturbances, incidental violence and police crowd control operations. Travellers should avoid polling stations and crowded public areas as they represent flashpoints for potential (Kurdistan Workers Party) PKK terror attacks. Monitor local media sources for further updates.
Copyright © 2024 Drum Cussac
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