Analysis: Counter-Terrorism Operations Against Kurdish Militants Lead to Elevated Risk of Retaliatory Attacks in Southeast
Category: Conflict
Severity: 3 (Moderate)
Source: Drum Cussac
05/22/2018 (Turkey) - Two Turkish soldiers were killed when an explosive device went off in the eastern province of Agri on Sunday, 20 May. The blast targeted a passing military vehicle in the Dogubeyazit district. Local government officials have blamed the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) for the attack.
In recent months, Turkey has been expanding its counter-terrorism efforts against Kurdish militant groups in the country, as well as in northern Iraq and Syria. An operation that began in Iraq in March called "Tigris Shield" is considered the most significant launched by Turkey into the region for more than a decade. Turkish forces have reportedly entered some 20km (12 miles) into territory controlled by the semi-autonomous Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) and have been sending reinforcements to bases in the area. Turkey's aim is to create 'security zones' across the border that would serve as a buffer zone to prevent PKK fighters from moving across the borders.
Even before the ground operations, Turkey had increased the frequency and intensity of its air strikes on PKK targets domestically as well as in northern Iraq and Sryia. The Turkish Interior Ministry said on 21 May that 21 members of the PKK were killed in Turkey in the past week and some 388 operations to eliminate PKK militants were carried out by Turkish Armed Forces (TSK) in the southeastern provinces. Among the casualties were reportedly 13 militants killed in an operation in Ovacik district of the eastern Tunceli province. Turkish jets also hit more than 10 PKK positions in northern Iraq on 18 May, destroying shelters and weapons emplacements.
In response to the heightened counter-terrorism operations, PKK fighters have upped their retaliatory attacks. On 14 April, two soldiers were killed and six others injured during a firefight with PKK militants near Dogubeyazit, Agri province. On 11 May, a soldier was killed and another wounded when an improvised explosive device (IED) detonated in the Bestler-Dereler region of S¿nak province. Militants have also begun targeting Turkish soldiers in Iraq. On 21 May, the Turkish army stated that two soldiers were killed in a PKK attack in northern Iraq, highlighting the will of the group to cause disruption to Turkish operations in the country.
It is highly likely that militants will continue to try to step up offensive operations in south-eastern and southern Turkey in an attempt to push security forces to overstretch. Attacks are likely to mainly involve targeted assassinations, small-squad attacks, bombings and acts of sabotage targeting police, military and local government officials. Most attacks occur in urban centres as the PKK tries to push Turkish forces to engage in costly urban fighting. However, attacks also take place in mountainous and rural areas and along highways, railways and local roads. Kurdish separatist militants linked to the Kurdistan Freedom Falcons (TAK) may also attempt to conduct additional high-profile and high-impact attacks in Turkish major cities.
Ankara will almost certainly continue to push forward with its counter-terrorism operations to achieve its state goals. Consolidating control around strategic regions in northern Iraq with the aim of limiting the PKK's movements will likely be a priority. There is a realistic probability that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will increase the effort in northern Iraq ahead of the upcoming elections slated for 24 June in attempt to garner more votes, especially since Turkish troops have already advanced very close to the Qandil Mountain, the PKK's primary base.
In the immediate-to short-term, the operations will lead to a heightened conflict risk in Turkey's southern and southeastern provinces. Local security forces will continue to prioritise counter-terrorist operations both in south-eastern provinces and throughout the country. There is also a realistic possibility that members of the Kurdish community and its supporters will stage anti-government protests in Istanbul, Ankara and other major cities to denounce the military incursion. These will lead to an increased risk of localised public unrest.
Copyright © 2024 Drum Cussac
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