Analysis: Far-Right Protests Underscore Concerns Linked to Nationalist Activity in Bulgaria
Category: Instability
Severity: 2 (Low)
Source: Drum Cussac
02/20/2018 (Bulgaria) - On Saturday, 17 February hundreds of Bulgarian and European far-right activists rallied in the centre of Sofia to conduct an annual march. The demonstration has been held every February since 2003 to commemorate what activists consider to be the "fallen heroes of Bulgaria". The rally led to condemnations from Bulgarian government officials, the US embassy and local Jewish organisations as it honoured Hristo Lukov, a Bulgarian nationalist leader that cooperated with Nazi Germany during the Second World War. The march was conducted peacefully and participants stated that they would not let any Bulgarian or international condemnations prevent them from holding their annual rally.
Far-right nationalists benefit from a relative popular support in Bulgaria. Since the beginning of the European migration crisis in 2015, right-wing groups have been staging an increased number of protests and organising events to promote their nationalist ideas. Bulgaria's border with Turkey was along the land route used by thousands of migrants to reach northern Europe. Between 2016 and 2017, nationalists with links to the Bulgarian National Movement formed border militias to deter illegal migrants from entering Bulgaria. While the number of migrants crossing the border dropped due to Sofia's implementation of tight security measure, the creation of small nationalist militias operating outside of state's legislation highlights the growing role of far-right ideals in small segments of the Bulgarian society.
At this point, the presence of far-right groups does not generate a threat to stability in Bulgaria. The government benefits from a thin parliamentary majority with the Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria (GERB)-United Patriots (UP) controlling 122 out of 240 seats in parliament. The GERB-UP coalition is a centre-right and relatively pro-EU one. Nationalists are moderately represented in parliament via the UP conservative platform. Extra-parliamentary movements active outside of the current legislature do not generate a threat to local institutions. Protests held by far-right activists are highly unlikely to garner sufficient support to substantially influence the local political environment.
While far-right nationalists do not generate a risk to local stability, their activity in Bulgaria increases the risk of periodic racist violence. There is a realistic possibility that members of far-right groups will engage in xenophobic, and more rarely homophobic, crimes specifically targeting foreigners and members of ethnic and religious minorities. These incidents are likely to involve the damaging of private property as well as the physical assault of victims. There is a credible risk that nationalist rallies will sporadically lead to counter-protests that could spark localised round of violent unrest. Bulgarian far-right nationalists are also likely to be active at the margin of sporting events, especially football games.
Copyright © 2024 Drum Cussac
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