Analysis: Attack in Dagestan Highlights Threat Posed by Radical Islamist Militancy
Category: Terrorism
Severity: 3 (Moderate)
Source: Drum Cussac
02/19/2018 (Russia) - On Sunday, 18 February a single gunman assaulted Christian Orthodox churchgoers in Dagestan. The perpetrator was armed with a hunting rifle and opened fire on a group of people as they were exiting a church following a pre-Lent celebration in the town of Kizlyar. The attack left five dead and five injured. The perpetrator was shot and killed by local police. The Islamic State (IS) issued a statement claiming the militant was linked to the organisation. However, the Sunni extremist group did not provide any information to corroborate the claim. Investigations are ongoing to determine the potential affiliations of the perpetrator.
Sunday's attack in Kizlyar was the first major terrorist incident to occur in the North Caucasus since the beginning of the year. The shooting comes as a stern reminder of the fact that Russia is exposed to a deep-rooted radical Islamist threat. Militant groups have been coordinating with transnational Sunni extremist networks for more than two decades, carrying out major terrorist attacks in the North Caucasus as well as throughout Russia. Since the start of the Syrian conflict there has been an increased presence of IS-aligned groups and IS-inspired militants in the restive region and throughout the country. Russia's current involvement in the Syrian conflict as well as the long-lasting Islamist insurgency in the North Caucasus have prompted senior IS officials to repeatedly call for attacks in the country. This creates a situation in which Sunni extremists and self-radicalised individuals have a strong incentive to conduct attacks in Dagestan and throughout Russia.
Given information released on Russian media, it is almost certain that the perpetrator of Sunday's was motivated by a Sunni extremist ideology. However, it is also likely that IS may try to put its stamp on attacks that it has not directly coordinated in order to score propaganda victories. There is a realistic possibility that the assailant in Kizlyar was self-radicalised and may have been inspired by radical Islamist ideologies without being directly in touch with IS operatives.
There is evidence that extremist propaganda is having the intended effect as IS loses ground in Iraq and Syria. On 3 April 2017, a Kyrgyzstani IS-linked militant conducted a suicide IED attack in the St. Petersburg subway. The explosion left 15 dead and 64 injured. On 17 August 2017, two attackers stabbed one policeman to death and injured another in the town of Kaspiisk in Dagestan. Two days later, a single-assailant armed with knife injured seven people at random before being shot dead by police in the Western Siberia town of Surgut. The string of attacks highlight that Russia is a high value-target for IS.
As Russia readies itself for the 18 March presidential election and the June-July FIFA World Cup, it is almost certain that federal security services, local police and intelligence agencies will step-up their counter-terrorist efforts. Self-radicalised militants and cells with direct ties to IS and al-Qaeda will continue to attempt attacks in the country. Current counter-terrorist measures makes it difficult to plot complex attacks, and as such the terrorist threat in the North Caucasus and throughout Russia will likely mainly be characterised by crude attacks involving single assailants and/or small-squads. Local security forces will almost certainly remain on high-alert and conduct periodic preventive counter-terrorist raids.
Copyright © 2024 Drum Cussac
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