Analysis: Prime Minister Hailemariam Resigns Amid Calls for Further Political Reform
Category: Instability
Severity: 3 (Moderate)
Source: Drum Cussac
02/16/2018 (Ethiopia) - Ethiopia's Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn announced his surprise resignation on Thursday, 15 February, in a move apparently intended to enable further political reform in the country following the recent release of political prisoners. The resignation followed several years of widespread unrest in Ethiopia in which hundreds have been killed and thousands arrested across the country.
Hailemariam, who had been prime minister since the death of long-time ruler Meles Zenawi in 2012, also resigned as chairman of the ruling Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) coalition. However, he is expected to stay on as caretaker prime minister until his replacement is appointed by the EPRDF. Hailemariam was seen as a competent technocrat good at overseeing Ethiopia's major development projects such as the Grand Renaissance Dam but was widely considered weak and ineffectual by more hardline members of the coalition.
The resignation follows several years of often violent unrest in the country due to tensions within the Oromo and Amhara communities. The protests were originally sparked by an urban development plan for Addis Ababa which threatened to encroach on the Oromia region but became focused around wider issues of the economic marginalisation of the Oromo and Amhara ethnic groups. In response to the protests, the government declared a state of emergency in October 2016 which introduced severe restrictions on civil liberties including increased control of media reporting and a ban on public gatherings. Thousands of protesters, journalists and political opponents were arrested before the lifting of the lifting of the state of emergency in August 2017. In recent weeks, Ethiopia has also seen deadly clashes between Oromo and Somali ethnic groups in the country as well as protests demanding the release of political prisoners.
In January, the government announced the release of hundreds of people arrested under the state of emergency and the closure of the notorious Maekelawi detention centre. Maekelawi had been described by rights groups as a torture centre; the government denied allegations of torture but pledged to build a new detention facility in line with international standards. Since the initial announcement, around 6,000 political prisoners have been released, including prominent opposition leaders and journalists. There had been speculation that Hailemariam had wanted to release all political prisoners held in the country but faced opposition from within the EPRDF.
The pace of political reform is believed to have created growing divisions within the governing coalition. Tensions are particularly high between the traditionally economically and politically dominant Tigrayan People's Liberation Front (TPLF) and the Oromo People's Democratic Organisation (OPDO), which has repeatedly complained about the economic marginalisation of the Oromo people. A major ministerial reshuffle in November also saw a number of senior figures within the EPRDF, including some closely linked to Meles Zenawi, removed from the upper echelons of the government. It is currently unclear who is likely to replace Hailemariam, but there has been increasing pressure from the OPDO for the appointment of an Oromo leader such as current foreign minister Workneh Gebeyehu.
Hailemariam's resignation has also raised questions over the direction of political reforms under the EPRDF. There have been suggestions that the prime minister stepping down was specifically calculated to clear the way for the appointment of an Oromo leader in an effort to placate the community amid continuing tensions. However, Hailemariam had always been seen as weak by hardline elements within the EPRDF, and there is a possibility that his resignation was forced due perceptions of his reforms being seen as too wide ranging and a concession to opposition groups.
While Hailemariam will remain as caretaker prime minister in the immediate term, his resignation is likely to create a level of political uncertainty, raising the potential for more serious EPRDF infighting. The succession battle may be bitter with parties and ethnic interests within the coalition competing for influence. Uncertainty also surrounds the pace of political reforms and particularly the potential release of further political prisoners. On Friday, some local media outlets reported that the government had declared a three-month state of emergency following Hailemariam's resignation. The terms of any new state of emergency are currently unclear but are likely to be less severe than those imposed in 2016.
The resignation increases the potential for further unrest in Ethiopia in the medium term, particularly if the pace of reforms is slowed or more political arrests are made. Political instability may also lead to political demonstrations and rallies in Addis Ababa and other major urban centres. It is currently unclear whether the state of emergency will affect travel in Addis Ababa and the wider country, but the previous state of emergency in 2016 saw widespread movement restrictions and crackdowns by security forces.
Copyright © 2024 Drum Cussac
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