Analysis: Saakashvili Deportation Highlights Ongoing Risk of Political Instability Sparked by Governance Issues
Category: Instability
Severity: 3 (Moderate)
Source: Drum Cussac
02/15/2018 (Ukraine) - On Monday, 12 February Ukrainian police detained opposition leader Mikheil Saakashvili in Kiev. The operation resulted in the expulsion of Saakashvili from Ukraine. The former Georgian president had been stripped of his Ukrainian nationality and has been deported to Poland, the country from which he illegally entered Ukraine earlier in 2017. Saakashvili is now in the Netherlands where he stated he would begin legal procedures to obtain again the Ukrainian nationality and work to get back to the country in a bid to continue his opposition movement against President Petro Poroshenko.
Following his tenure as President of Georgia (2008-2013), Saakashvili fled to Ukraine as he was under investigation in his home country. He received the Ukrainian nationality and became a political ally of President Poroshenko. In 2015, Saakashvili became the mayor of the southern city of Odessa. However, he quickly started a feud with Poroshenko and the Ukrainian government, accusing them of perpetuating large-scale corruption and hijacking the 2014 uprising. He left the mayor's office in late 2016 and since then has been a vocal opponent of Poroshenko. Saakashvili claims that President Poroshenko hijacked Ukrainian democratic ambitions and that the ruling structure is a continuation of the oligarch-led one that was in place under pro-Russia president Viktor Yanukovitch. Saakashvili is highly likely to remain a subversive figure in the Ukrainian political environment in the coming month as he will try to orchestrate protests from abroad. However, his deportation will probably diminish the impact he has over local politics.
In addition to Saakashvili's actions, opposition to President Poroshenko and the Ukrainian government is rising. Opposition parties and civil society groups increasingly criticise the ruling system due to its inability to tackle poor governance and corruption. Local public services, utilities and social services continue to suffer from poor management and limited maintenance. Since the 2014 uprising, the local standard of living has not substantially improved, and President Poroshenko has been unable to tackle Ukraine's main concerns such as the conflict in the east, the high level of corruption and the improvement of local salary levels. It is almost certain that in the coming months members of the opposition will continue to stage periodic protests.
Socio-economic and political issues will almost certainly continue to lead to periodic protests in Ukraine. Opposition rallies are likely to mainly occur in Kiev, but smaller events may also take place nationwide. While the police are unlikely to violently disperse protests, there is a realistic possibility that opposition rallies may lead to localised rounds of unrest as demonstrators may build makeshift camps in the centre of Kiev. Political instability and poor governance will continue to remain concerns in Ukraine that will hinder economic development and the reform of local institutions. There is a low risk that pro-Russia agitators may try to provoke clashes during opposition protests in a bid to increase the risk of political instability in the country.
Copyright © 2024 Drum Cussac
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