Analysis: Border Incident Underscores Elevated Risk of Inter-State Conflict in Southern Syria
Category: Conflict
Severity: 3 (Moderate)
Source: Drum Cussac
02/13/2018 (Syria) - On the morning of 10 February, the Israeli Air Force (IAF) clashed with Iranian and Syrian military units along the Israel-Syria border. The incident marked an escalation in tensions along Syria's south-western border with Israel. An Iranian drone, that allegedly took off from the Syrian Tiyas Military Airbase, flew within Israeli air space. This prompted the IAF to intercept the unmanned aircraft using a combat helicopter. In response to the Iranian incursion, the IAF hit the Tiyas Military Airbase. Syrian air defence units fired multiple ground-to-air missiles downing an Israeli F-16 military aircraft. The incident marked the first loss of a military aircraft in combat by the IAF in 36 years. As a result of the incidents, two Israeli pilots were injured, an unconfirmed number of Syrian soldiers were killed, several Syrian air defence batteries were destroyed and an Iranian drone was shot down.
The aforementioned incident highlights the heightened risk of conflict in south-western Syria. Iranian and Hezbollah units supporting President Bashar al-Assad military forces have been developing their capabilities along the Israeli border. This is part of an Iranian strategy to project power in the region. The 10 February decision to use a drone within the Israeli airspace marked a will by Iran to escalate the situation in the region. Since the beginning of the Syrian conflict, Israel has periodically conducted air strikes against Syrian, Iranian and Hezbollah units in south-western and central Syria. The Israeli policy is aimed at deterring aggression by its rivals and mitigating the risk of Iran deploying weapon systems that would alter the strategic balance in the region. It is almost certain that Israel will continue to conduct operations in southern Syria.
At this point the risk of a wider conflict pitting Israel against Iran, Hezbollah and the Syrian government remains limited. None of the involved actors would benefit from such an outcome. It is highly likely that Teheran will continue to leverage its support of Damascus by further developing its capabilities along Israel's border. Following the 10 February incident, Israeli military and government officials stated that given the extent of Iranian presence in the region, the Israeli strategy needs to be reviewed. While no information has been given on the meaning of a possible strategy change, it is probable that the volume and tempo of Israeli strikes will increase. It is also likely that Syria will try to obtain additional air defence batteries to partially deter Israeli operations.
South-western Syria will almost certainly remain exposed to a high risk of inter-state conflict. The presence of multiple covert and overt operations by competing armies and militias makes it highly likely that further incidents similar to the 10 February one may occur in the coming months. It is almost certain that Iran and Hezbollah will continue to exploit the Syrian conflict to solidify their foothold along the Israeli border. However, it is almost certain that Damascus will try to limit the risk of a wider conflict with Israel as the Syrian government is engaged in operations to defeat Sunni extremist insurgents from southern regions. Any wider Israeli involvement in the Syrian conflict would substantially debilitate the Syrian armed forces.
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