Analysis: Ballistic Missile from Yemen Intercepted near Jazan, Cross-Border Conflict Threat to Continue
Category: Conflict
Severity: 3 (Moderate)
Source: Drum Cussac
01/18/2018 (Saudi Arabia) - A Saudi Air Defense unit intercepted a ballistic missile fired from Yemen on Tuesday, 16 January near the city of Jazan, Jazan province. The incident occurred at approximately 2020 (1720hrs UTC). The Yemen-based Houthi movement said it had fired a short-range missile at the Jazan Regional Airport (GIZ). No injuries or damages were reported.
The incident highlights the conflict threat linked to the Saudi military operation against the Houthi movement in Yemen. The Saudi-led coalition has launched thousands of air strikes against the Iran-allied Houthis since March 2015. In response, Houthi-Saleh forces have fired more than 40,000 projectiles, including dozens of ballistic missiles, across the border. Most missiles have landed in Saudi's southern provinces of Najran, Jizan and Asir on the Yemeni border, forcing Riyadh to evacuate a dozen villages and displace over 7,000 people from frontier districts. Mortar, artillery, rocket and ballistic missile fire have targeted mainly military posts, bases and convoys in these three provinces, causing casualties mainly among Saudi security forces.
In recent weeks the Houthis have become increasingly belligerent in their threats amid a change in alliances in Yemen and victories by Saudi-backed forces. On 4 November, the Houthis killed their ally and former president Ali Abdullah Saleh at his home in Sanaa after he decided to break with them and shift his allegiance to the side of the Saudi-led Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) coalition. The army of internationally recognised Yemeni President Mansour Hadi, aided by military advisers from the UAE and the Saudi-led coalition, is taking advantage of the collapse of the Houthi-Saleh alliance and has been pushing along Yemen's west coast toward the Houthi-controlled city of Hodeida since early December. The ultimate aim is likely to take control of the key coastal area of Hodeida, the only major port that is still under Houthi control. The Hodeida port is an alleged entry point for smuggled Iranian arms destined for the Houthis, making it a critical lifeline for the rebel group.
The Yemeni army is also making advances in Yemen's northern Saada governorate, the stronghold of the Houthi militia. Clashes have reportedly been taking place in the al-Alib mountains, where the army has taken territory, captured at least five Houthi fighters and recovered weapons and ammunition. Amid the increased pressure, the Houthis have continued to fire missiles toward Saudi in a likely attempt to project power. On 11 January, Houthis fired a long-range ballistic missile toward a military airport of Apache helicopters at the Saudi Special Forces camp in the Saudi border province of Najran. The missile reportedly targeted a heavily-populated area but was destroyed midair and resulted in no casualties. On 9 January, the Houthis threatened to cut off the Red Sea shipping line if the Saudi-led coalition forces keep advancing toward Hodeida. Previously in November the Houthis had threatened to attack warships and oil tankers from enemy countries should the coalition attack Hodeida.
There is a realistic possibility that the Houthis will make further attempts at long-range missile attacks. The Houthis have demonstrated a long-term interest in extending their military capabilities beyond the border area. Among the missiles Houthis claim to use in their attacks include Borkan-1, Borkan-2, Qahir and Zelzal-2 missiles. The "Borkan-2" missile is reported to have a range of 1400km (869 miles), which covers 80 per cent of Saudi Arabia. Houthi leaders have threatened to use these to hit major Saudi cities and oil facilities. On 4 November Saudi missile defence systems reportedly brought down a long-range missile fired at Riyadh's King Khaled Airport, on the northern outskirts of the capital. Another missile was fired at the Yamama Palace hotel in Riyadh on 19 December. The Houthis have also fired missiles at Jeddah, Taif and Mecca, highlighting their determination to launch attacks deep inside the kingdom.
As the conflict in Yemen looks set to continue into the medium-term, it is likely that the Houthis will continue to respond to air strikes and territorial losses with retaliatory missiles. The majority of these will likely focus on Saudi's southern provinces Najran, Jazan and Asir, although there is a realistic probability that the Houthis will attempt additional attacks against Saudi's major urban centres. Saudi Arabia operates U.S.-made Patriot missile defence systems, which are highly capable of intercepting and destroying missiles launched into the Saudi interior. It is highly likely that Patriot PAC-2 batteries are deployed around strategic sites, including oil facilities, airports and ports. The inherent inaccuracy of Scud-type systems combined with Saudi's capable air defence systems means that it is unlikely that a missile fired from Yemen would inflict significant property damage and casualties.
Copyright © 2024 Drum Cussac
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