Analysis: World Economic Forum in Davos Unlikely to Result in any Heightened Security Concerns
Category: Unrest
Severity: 2 (Low)
Source: Drum Cussac
01/18/2018 (Switzerland) - Between 23 and 26 January, the 48th World Economic Forum (WEF) Annual Meeting will take place in Davos. The Annual Meeting will be attended by approximately 2,500 stakeholders including heads-of-states, government officials, business deciders, members of academia and civil society. At this point, there are no known threats to the WEF Annual meeting. However, the event has historically been a focal point for anti-globalisation protests in major Swiss cities. The presence of high-profile individuals along with the symbolic value of the venue generates a potential, albeit low, security risk associated with the event.
In recent years, the volume and scope of anti-WEF protests diminished due to fading support for anti-globalisation groups and effective policing in major Swiss cities. However, the 2018 Annual Meeting is likely to generate some degree of public protests due to the presence of US President Donald Trump. At this point, it is likely that anti-globalisation protesters along with single-issue activists will try to carry out small- to medium-scale rallies, especially in Switzerland's large urban centres, throughout the duration of the event. These demonstrations are likely to be very well-policed and remain peaceful.
There is a low risk that anarchist networks active in Switzerland will try to conduct low-capability demonstrative attacks during the period of the WEF Annual meeting. Anarchist groups in the country sporadically conduct arson, sabotage and bombings using home-made rudimentary devices. These incidents generally target industrial sites and branches of financial companies. Such incidents are not designed to cause mass casualties but result in an incidental risk of exposure to violence that could lead to injuries.
The Swiss Federal Intelligence Service (FIS) currently monitors approximately 1,000 Swiss radical Islamists present and operating on the national territory. However, according to local intelligence services the threat of terrorism in the country is lower than throughout Western Europe. As such, the risk of an Islamic State (IS)-inspired terrorist attack during the WEF Annual Meeting is negligible. Lone-assailant and low-capability crude attacks remain the main concern in Switzerland. There is a realistic probability that Swiss-based radical Islamists will try to conduct stabbings, car-rammings or shootings targeting security forces public places or other symbolic venues in the coming 12-month period. However, there is no information pertaining to a heightened terrorist threat during the WEF Annual Meeting.
The WEF Annual Meeting will be highly secured with 5,000 members of the Swiss Army and Air Force specifically deployed to Davos. Local police will be tasked with maintaining public order while armed forces will secure local infrastructure. All access points to Davos will be monitored. The WEF Annual Meeting will be a hardened target making it highly unlikely that any incident will directly happen in the city. Protest activity will probably occur in major Swiss cities such as Lausanne, Geneva and Zurich. During the duration of the WEF Annual Meeting, delays to air and overland travel as well as temporary movement restrictions in the Davos area should be planned for.
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