Analysis: Coordinated Bombing in Baghdad Highlights Threat Posed by Islamic State's Return to Insurgency
Category: Terrorism
Severity: 3 (Moderate)
Source: Drum Cussac
01/17/2018 (Iraq) - On 15 January, two coordinated explosions left more than 35 dead and 90 injured in the centre of Baghdad. The attack took place in Tayaran Square at approximately 1000hrs (0700 UTC). Two suicide bombers hit crowds of local labourers gathering in the square. The first blast triggered a crowd movement that was met by the second explosion. The attack was designed to lead to mass casualties. At this juncture, no group has yet claimed responsibility for the bombing. However, the tactics used and the nature of the target point toward the likely involvement of Islamic State (IS)-aligned militants.
Since mid-2017, IS has steadily been losing its territorial control over the regions it had occupied since 2014 in Iraq. This led Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi to declare victory over the insurgent group in December 2017. Given the changing strategic situation, it is highly likely that the group will transition from state building to an insurgent and guerilla campaign to continue to undermine security and stability. Even with diminished capabilities, it is almost certain that IS will try to exploit sectarian tensions through mass casualty attacks to keep the notion of IS alive in the minds of Iraqis. Terrorist attacks such as the one that hit Baghdad on 15 January are designed to discredit local authorities and create a gap between the population and the Iraqi institutions.
Terrorism will remain a major security concern in Baghdad in the medium term. While IS has lost its bomb-making facilities west of the capital, the organisation is likely to continue to be able to manufacture a lower number of improvised explosive devices (IEDs). Attacks in Baghdad are likely to mainly target crowded central districts in the vicinity of the Tayaran Square and in the Karada area as well as Shia-majority districts such as Sadr City and other northern parts of the capital. IS attacks will almost certainly continue to try to cause mass casualties among the local civilian population, hit commercial and Shia districts and target police and military checkpoints and units. The majority of IS attacks in the city are likely to involve bombings, including suicide bombings, and targeted shootings.
There is a realistic possibility that IS will also try to expand its operations in the periphery of the capital as well as cities south of Baghdad such as Karbala, Hillah, Najaf and Nasiriya. While the Sunni insurgent group has limited resources in southern Shia-majority cities, it has in the past demonstrated its will and capacity to carry out mass casualty bombings in southern Iraq. While IS has been trying for the last few years to expand its operations in the Shia-majority south, attacks are still occasional rather than normal events. The low tempo of attacks suggests a lack of support networks for the Sunni extremist group. Nevertheless, terrorist attacks have been directed at the security forces and civilians in public areas such as marketplaces.
The terrorist threat will almost certainly remain a major factor negatively impacting the security environment in Baghdad and in the periphery of the capital. Mosques and shrines, police checkpoints, security force buildings, transport hubs, markets and any soft target areas are assessed as priority targets for terrorist attacks. IS is likely to try to maintain a sustained tempo of attacks in a bid to counter the narrative that the organisation was defeated, challenge local authorities and try to stoke sectarian tensions.
Copyright © 2024 Drum Cussac
Related
News Alerts and Safety Profiles are provided strictly for informational purposes and contain the best available data at the time of writing. While every effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, the information in this report has not been independently verified and HTH Worldwide therefore accepts no responsibility or liability for any inaccuracies in such information and any such liability is expressly denied, and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made. Documents may be amended or withdrawn at any time without cause.