Analysis: Explosion South-West of Stockholm Underscores Ongoing Threat Generated by Criminal Activity in Southern Sweden
Category: Health and Medical
Severity: 3 (Moderate)
Source: Drum Cussac
01/16/2018 (Sweden) - On 7 January, an explosion left one dead in the Varby Gard suburb southwest of Stockholm. The blast was caused as a pedestrian picked-up an unidentified object in the vicinity of a local subway station. The victim was identified as a 60-year old local resident. Police investigations revealed that the blast was caused by a hand grenade and that the device did not specifically target the victim. It is likely that it had been abandoned there by local criminal groups.
The aforementioned incident is noteworthy as it comes as a stern reminder of an ongoing trend of criminal violence in Sweden. According to police data, southern Sweden has experienced a surge of criminal violence involving the usage of explosive devices. In 2014, eight incidents involving grenades were reported. In 2015, this number rose to 48. In 2016, it surged to 52. While data for 2017 is not yet available, the overall number of criminal grenade attacks is likely to be higher than previous years. Between October and November more than a dozen incidents of this kind were reported. The majority of these occurred in the wider Malmo area and were linked to gang-related violence. Local criminal gangs are known to periodically use homemade explosives to conduct attacks against rival groups, competing businesses and sporadically against police forces. It is likely that this type of incident will continue to generate an incidental security risk in the coming 12-month period, particularly in in Sweden's southern areas.
Overall criminal activity generates a negligible security risk. However, in recent years the country has experienced a rising trend of gang-related activity. Organised criminal groups mainly involved in human and drug trafficking have developed strong networks, especially in the Malmo area as well as in Goteborg and the northern and southern suburbs of Stockholm. Criminal groups are mainly active in areas with high unemployment rates and in districts with a high percentage of migrant populations. Swedish police identified 61 geographic areas in the country as " vulnerable" regions. These urban districts generate substantial challenges to law enforcement personnel. Organised criminal activity is closely linked to social and economic issues, and as such it is likely to continue to negatively impact on the security environment of specific Swedish regions.
Periodic violent incidents linked to local gangs are highly likely to continue to generate a security concern in Malmo, southern Sweden and the poorer suburbs of Stockholm. Gang violence does not generate a direct threat to the wider population as the majority of attacks are not designed to cause mass casualties. However, as demonstrated by the 7 January incident, the usage of IEDs increases the risk of incidental exposure to violence. These incidents will almost certainly continue to fuel the political debate in Sweden with right-wing parties calling for tighter security measures and tighter migration policies. Access to weapons and explosives also lead to heightened concerns that these may fall in the hands of radical Islamists.
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