Analysis: Catalan Authorities Fail to Clarify their Position Increasing Risk of Political Instability
Category: Instability
Severity: 3 (Moderate)
Source: Drum Cussac
10/17/2017 (Spain) - On Monday, 16 October Spanish authorities detained two senior members of the Catalan independence movement. Jordi Sanchez, leader of the Catalan National Assembly (ANC), and Jordi Cuixat, leader of Omnium Cultural, are being held in Madrid and currently under investigation. Sanchez and Cuixat are being investigated for their role in banned protests that took place on 20 September during which separatists blocked Civil Guard officers inside a building in Barcelona. The detention of the two men led to localised protests in Barcelona. On the same day, Josep Lluis Trapero, head of the Catalan autonomous police (Mossos d'Esquadra) was released from custody while the investigation into his role during the 1 October referendum continues.
The aforementioned developments come less than a week after Carles Puigdemont, President of the Catalan government, officially announced the results of the independence referendum on 10 October. In his speech, President Puigdemont stated that through the 1 October referendum Catalonia gained the right to govern itself as an independent and sovereign republic. However, he temporarily suspended the independence process in a bid to negotiate with Madrid. Puigdemont sent an official letter to the Spanish government on 16 October to clarify the Catalan government position. However, the Spanish government stated the content of the letter was unclear and did not qualify as a clear position of the Catalan government. Since 1 October, Catalan separatists have been unable to capitalise on the political success they gained through the independence referendum and it is likely that Madrid will continue to pressure Puigdemont in a bid to weaken his political standing in the Catalan regional parliament.
Madrid continues to view the independence referendum as illegal and anti-constitutional. Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy stated that the government would not negotiate with Catalan authorities on the premises of Catalan independence. Since September, the central government has implemented sanctions to pressure separatists. Dozens of mayors and separatist officials are under investigation and Madrid warned that members of the Catalan government, including President Puigdemont, may be detained. Since 1 October, the Mossos d'Esquadra has been under Madrid's control and more than 4,000 additional police officers have been deployed in Catalonia. The central government also warned that it may revoke Catalonia's autonomy by invoking Article 155 of the Spanish Constitution.
The Spanish government gave the Catalan authorities until Thursday, 19 October to clarify their position and abandon the independence drive. While the implementation of Article 155 would substantially diminish the chances of a negotiated solution, it would mark a major setback for local separatists as it would put all Catalonia's institutions directly under Madrid's control. The risk of such a scenario unfolding remains moderate. It is likely that Madrid is using it as a threat to pressure President Puigdemont. However, should Catalan separatists refuse to clarify their positions, there is a realistic possibility that the Spanish government would invoke Article 155 within the coming month.
The Catalan crisis increases the risk of political instability in the region and in Spain. There is a growing risk that Madrid will call for snap regional elections in an attempt to destabilise the ruling separatist coalition. The Catalan government relies on a parliamentary coalition built around President Puigdemont's separatist push. However, President Puigdemont's calls for negotiations with Madrid are likely to create tensions with hardline separatists within the coalition. Such a move is likely to weaken President Puigdemont. The heightened political risk in Catalonia also increases the potential for economic setbacks in the region. While Catalonia accounts for more than 20 percent of Spanish GDP, the growing political uncertainty will probably result in less investor confidence and trigger an economic slowdown in the coming six months with major companies relocating their legal headquarters somewhere else in Spain.
The situation also generates an elevated risk of political unrest with both camps staging demonstrations. Pro-independence protests and strikes will almost certainly continue to mainly occur in Catalonia, while counter-rallies are likely to take place in Madrid as well as in Barcelona. Such events generate a localised risk of scuffles as participants can clash with police as well as with members of the rival camp.
Copyright © 2024 Drum Cussac
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