Analysis: Transfer of Power after Presidential Poll to be Peaceful, Elevated Risk of Localised Protests
Category: Instability
Severity: 2 (Low)
Source: Drum Cussac
10/17/2017 (Kyrgyz Republic) - Sooronbai Jeenbekov of the Social Democratic Party of Kyrgyzstan (SDPK) won Kyrgyzstan's presidential election, according to reports on Monday, 16 October. Jeenbekov, a former prime minister who was backed by outgoing President Almazbek Atambayev, received 54.3 percent of the about 1.7 million votes cast, making a run-off unnecessary, the central election commission reported. His main rival out of 10 other candidates was Omurbek Babanov, an oil tycoon and leader of the Respublika party who received about 33.4 percent of the vote. Turnout was 56 percent of three million eligible voters. An official confirmation of the figures is expected within a week.
Jeenbekov's election will mark the first democratic transfer of power in Kyrgyzstan in its 26 years of independence. Kyrgyzstan's first two post-Soviet presidents, Askar Akayev and Kurmanbek Bakiyev, were forced out of office in violent revolutions of 2005 and 2010. Current President Atambayev will be the first to leave his post of his own volition, after only one six-year term. Atambayev cannot run for a second presidential term because of changes made to the Kyrgyz Constitution following the 2010 revolution.
The campaign period was marred by tensions, with both sides accusing the other of crimes. Atambayev and the SDPK supported Jeenbekov and cracked down on the opposition, jailing several prominent leaders. Several state media outlets accused Babanov of inciting Kyrgyzstan's ethnic Uzbeks to violence during a speech in Osh on 28 September. Babanov has also been accused of plotting to foment riots if he lost the poll. Kanatbek Isayev, an MP said to have been backing Babanov's presidential bid, was arrested on 30 September on chargers of liaising with criminal groups in order to provoke unrest after the election. Jeenbekov was also dogged by accusations that administrative resources were being used to boost his chances on election day. It is likely that Babanov's supporters will focus on this accusation in the coming days as they question Jeenbekov's victory, which saw him win by a larger margin than had been predicted.
Tensions were also heightened with neighbouring Kazakhstan throughout the election. Atambaev had criticised Kazakhstan for interference in the election and allegedly supporting Babanov. Atambaev also denounced Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbaev, who has been in power since the Soviet era, over his long rule. The criticism came after Babanov met with Nazarbaev on 19 September in Kazakhstan's largest city, Almaty. The move was unusual for the president of a neighbouring country during an election campaign. Kazakh Prime Minister Baqytzhan Saghyntaev rejected the Kyrgyz claims of interference, and on 10 October Kazakhstan tightened control over its border crossings with Kyrgyzstan, severely slowing the passage of travellers and vehicles. Kyrgyzstan retaliated shortly after with its own heightened border security. The situation remained at a stalemate throughout election day. With Kyrgyzstan's main trade routes running through Kazakhstan, it is likely that the president-elect will prioritise normalising relations with Astana.
It is likely that many Kyrgyzs will express disbelief about the results of the poll. While Babanov officially lost the election, he still received more than one-third of the votes cast, including nearly 90 percent of the votes in his native Talas Province. Jeenbekov won with one of the smallest percentages of votes ever received by a winner in a Kyrgyz presidential election, meaning his mandate is not as solid as his predecessors. Additionally, European poll observers have said vote-buying and significant procedural problems marred the poll, and Babanov supporters are likely to cite this as evidence for his loss. While Babanov acknowledged in a press conference on 16 October the problems he and his supporters faced, he also made statements appearing to accept the result without challenge and urging his supporters not to respond to provocations. It is likely these statements were an attempt to assuage concerns over the threat of unrest and promote a peaceful transition of power.
Nonetheless, there is a realistic possibility that protest activity will take place in two-month outlook after the vote, particularly in Talas Province. Jeenbekov is to be inaugurated on 1 December, and this will likely be a flashpoint date for hardline Babanov supporters. However, tight security measures in the capital and at a government building and crackdowns on opposition protesters will deter any significant, disruptive unrest. In the long-term, Jeenbekov will have to deal with Kyrgyzstan's struggling economy and high levels of unemployment, a situation that is unlikely to improve soon. Security and growing concerns over terrorism is another concern, particularly as Kyrgyz nationals were reportedly involved in the bombing of the St. Petersburg subway in April this year. Authorities have cracked down and made arrests of suspected militants, particularly within the minority Uzbek community, and there is concern over the growing communal tensions. Both situations should be monitored for any indication of political instability and associated unrest.
Copyright © 2024 Drum Cussac
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