Analysis: Elevated Tensions between Iran and US as Trump Decertifies Nuclear Deal
Category: Conflict
Severity: 3 (Moderate)
Source: Drum Cussac
10/16/2017 (Iran) - On Friday, 13 October, US President Donald Trump announced that he is decertifying the nuclear deal with Iran, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), under US law. The JCPOA gave Iran sanctions relief from the signatories (the US, China, France, Russia, the UK, and Germany) in return for curbing its nuclear programme. In a speech at the White House, Trump said that Iran has committed multiple violations of the agreement. He alleged that Iran had failed to meet expectations in its operation of advanced centrifuges and intimidated international inspectors into not using their full authority.
Also on Friday, the Trump administration announced new sanctions against the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Iran's powerful security and military organisation. The Treasury Department authorised the sanctions against the IRGC using a 9/11-era executive order that George W. Bush's administration used to block financing to terrorist organisations. The new designation freezes the IRGC out of the US financial system. Trump also called the IRGC a "terror force" and "militia" but stopped short of designating it a terrorist group. Iranian officials had previously threatened unspecified consequences if that occurred.
As per the Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act, passed by the US Congress in May 2015, the US president is required to certify to Congress every 90 days that Iran is in compliance, and Trump had been facing a deadline on Sunday, 15 October for notification. It is unclear at present time how the US will proceed. The move does not mean that the US will outright quit the deal, which was negotiated by the Obama administration in 2015. Rather, it means the deal will go to the Republican-dominated Congress for reconsideration during a 60-day window. Once in Congress, lawmakers could leave the agreement the same, impose changes, or reinstate sanctions against Iran, which would effectively end the deal.
Trump's actions have suggested he is not willing to kill the deal himself. Congress allows the White House to waive sanctions related to the 2012 National Defence Authorisation Act every 120 days. Since becoming president, Trump has signed the waivers on re-imposing sanctions twice, including last month. It is likely that Trump chose a middle ground through decertification that allowed him to project his hostility to the deal while putting the impetus for action on Congress. Many Republicans have called for new legislation that addresses the "flaws" of the deal. However, given the fractious relations between most Democrats and Republicans, in addition to the lack of any clear bipartisan consensus, there is a realistic possibility that a decision will not be made before January. In this case, the issue of waiving sanctions will come back to Trump, who will have to sign the waivers once again or else the sanctions will be reapplied automatically.
Even if the US were to re-impose nuclear-related sanctions on Iran, this would not necessarily mean the end of the deal. Iran and the other signatories can continue with the agreement, although, Iran would likely demand to be compensated for any financial damages caused by US sanctions. However, it is unlikely that Congress would choose to reinstate the pre-2016 nuclear sanctions as this would increase the risk of secondary sanctions affecting foreign companies across various sectors in Iran, including oil and gas, banking, auto, shipping, and petrochemicals. Such an action would almost certainly upset European and Asian countries committed to the deal. It would also probably deter the other signatories from continuing the deal without US support, forcing the collapse of the deal and leave Iran to resume its nuclear programme without constraints.
The most likely path is that Congress will take minimal action, opting to review US strategy and request congressional hearings. However, any significant incident between Iran and the US, particularly in the Persian Gulf, will increase the likelihood of the implementation of secondary sanctions. Naval incidents involving Iran occur periodically, and US and Iranian ships frequently come within proximity of each other. Warning shots have been fired on more than one occasion, although no loss of life or damages have been incurred. As tensions over the JCPOA persist, there is a realistic probability that additional such incidents will take place. Should the US unilaterally withdraw from the JCPOA, there will be an elevated risk of acts of militancy directed toward US military and commercial interests and allies in the Gulf region.
In Iran, there is a heightened risk for protests to take place with an anti-American focus in response to JCPOA developments, including the re-imposition of pre-agreement sanctions that would negatively affect the Iranian economy. On 13 October, ahead of Trump's speech, hundreds of people gathered at Tehran University to denounce decertification. Most protests are peaceful although disruptions to travel and movement during gatherings is common. In Tehran, gatherings can take place at locations such as Azadi Square and the Imam Khomeini Shrine. Other potential flashpoint areas for unrest include the British embassy on Ferdowsi Avenue and the former US embassy on the corner of Taleqani and Moffateh Avenues.
Copyright © 2024 Drum Cussac
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