Analysis: High Risk of Localised Conflict after Iraqi Forces Advance in Kirkuk
Category: Conflict
Severity: 4 (High)
Source: Drum Cussac
10/16/2017 (Iraq) - Iraqi government forces have advanced in the disputed province of Kirkuk and seized control of some areas from Kurdish fighters. Army media said on Facebook on 16 October that security forces in Kirkuk had seized control of some key bridges, roads, a gas facility, an oil refinery, a police station, and a power station. State TV said the forces had seized these areas "without fighting". Earlier in the day, Kurdistan security council said that the Iraqi forces had advanced to seize control of oil fields in Kirkuk. Meanwhile, Kirkuk Governor Najm al-Din Karim urged the province residents to take up arms to defend their city, according to private Al-Sumaria News website.
The advance of the Iraqi government forces in Kirkuk comes after Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi ordered the federal forces to enforce federal authority over the disputed province. The Rapid Response Unit, which was formerly fighting the Islamic State (IS), was deployed around Taza, 10km (six miles) south of Kirkuk city, on 13 October. The main two-armed Iraqi Kurdish political parties - Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) - have called for negotiations with the Iraqi government in order to decrease conflict risks. Tensions have risen between Baghdad and the Kurdistan Autonomous Region (KAR) after the latter held a referendum last month to secede from Iraq. Oil-rich, multi-ethnic Kirkuk is claimed by both sides and there is now a high risk of localised conflict.
Legally, Kirkuk falls under Iraqi federal government authority, although the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) has enjoyed de facto control over the province since the withdrawal of Iraqi government forces in response to IS advances in northern Iraq between June and August 2014. The KRG has said that its forces will not withdraw from the areas they have recaptured from IS. In addition to Iraqi government forces, reports indicate that paramilitaries from the Shia-dominated Popular Mobilisation Units (PMU) have moved from Mosul to Kirkuk. It is highly likely that Prime Minister Abadi's decision-making will be undermined by aggressive actions by the PMU, which is backed by Iran. Disagreements among the main three ethnic groups in Kirkuk are also likely to spur localised conflict as Arabs and Turkmens are against Kurdish control over the province.
Given the current indicators, it is likely that the Iraqi government will seek to regain influence over Kirkuk by controlling the oil fields and other vital infrastructure such as the airport. The seizure of such assets would undermine the economic viability of an independent Kurdish state. However, skirmishes involving small arms fire are likely to occur, raising death and injury risks. A large-scale Iraqi government military operation against Kirkuk city remains unlikely due to a high risk of miscalculation. Furthermore, the US is likely to be a restraining influence on the Iraqi government's response. It is also unlikely that Iraqi government forces or PMU would attack core KRG territories such as Sulaymaniyah or Erbil. The US would probably step in to support the KRG to safeguard its national security interests, namely to combat IS and prevent the expansion of Iranian influence.
A significant threat of localised conflict escalation is likely to come from the PMUs. It is highly likely that Kurds would perceive that the Shia militia presence in Kirkuk, in whatever guise, is designed to establish Shia Arab control of Kirkuk. Iran would likely use its proxy to force the US into a difficult decision between allowing the conflict to escalate, or backing the KRG and giving credibility to Iran's narrative that Iraqi Kurdish independence is part of an American plan to create a "new Israel" in the Middle East. It is likely that the Iraqi government will try to quickly regain control of Kirkuk and its energy infrastructure to restore the status quo and to reduce the likelihood of PMUs triggering conflict escalation.
Copyright © 2024 Drum Cussac
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