Analysis: Police Warn of Heightened Risk of Violent Unrest Associated with Far-Left and Anarchist Militants
Category: Unrest
Severity: 3 (Moderate)
Source: Drum Cussac
10/16/2017 (France) - On Friday, 13 October, French media reported that the ministry of interior and French police are increasingly concerned over violent actions conducted by far-left and anarchist militants. Dozens of militants are currently on trial for violent incidents that occurred between May 2016 and September 2017. Police assess that left-wing extremists are trying to expand their scope of action by increasingly infiltrating anti-government protests and conducting attacks against security forces and public administration property.
Far-left and anarchist militants stepped up their involvement in anti-government protests during the 2016 wave of unrest sparked by the government-backed labour market reform. According to police estimates, approximately 200 violent radicals took part in the protests with the objective of damaging public property and attacking police officers. Far-left and anarchist militants are mainly linked to the Mouvement Inter Lutte Independent (MILI) and the Action Antifasciste (AFA). Both organisations are largely active in the Paris region and recruit heavily among teenagers and young students.
Far-left and anarchist militants have demonstrated their skills in infiltrating major protests organised by labour unions, civil society groups and left-wing political parties. Radicals generally operate in small groups located at the front and the back of a group of normal protesters. The objective of their actions is to provoke police to spark confrontations that will result in larger violent unrest. These tactics are well tested and have proven somewhat successful during the 2016 anti-reform protests as police were forced to use extensive crowd control measures such as the deployment of barriers and the usage of water cannons, tear gas and stun grenades to disperse crowds. It is highly likely that radicals will continue to use such tactics as a force multiplier in a bid to crystallise tensions between left-wing protesters and security forces.
There are growing concerns that far-left and anarchist militants may also conduct violent attacks specifically targeting police, gendarmerie and public administration personnel and property. Since September 2017, dozens of police vehicles have been torched in attacks claimed by left-wing militants. There is a realistic possibility that within the next six months radicals will try to conduct more attacks. Acts of violence are likely to involve throwing Molotov cocktails against police stations and public administration buildings, torching security forces' vehicles as well as using crude improvised explosive devices (IEDs). While these attacks are not meant to cause mass casualties they generate a moderate risk of exposure to indiscriminate violence to all those in the immediate vicinity of the incident.
Given current indicators, far-left and anarchist militants are highly likely to continue to generate a moderate risk of violent unrest and localised violence during any upcoming major anti-government protest. Rallies linked to environmental, social and economic issues as well as those sparked by international crises, especially those linked to Israel, are likely to prone to be infiltrated by violent radicals. Trials of far-left and anarchist militants also lead to a heightened risk of localised unsanctioned protests in the vicinity of the court. Police will almost certainly continue to monitor the threat and adapt their crowd control tactics to minimise the risk of violent unrest, contain violent elements and protect public property.
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