Analysis: Tensions between Israel and Gaza following Security Incidents, Armed Resistance from Gaza to Remain a Concern
Category: Conflict
Severity: 3 (Moderate)
Source: Drum Cussac
10/13/2017 (Israel) - A top Israel Defense Forces (IDF) general warned Hamas against provocative action and threatened military response on Wednesday, 11 October. Coordinator of the Government Activities in the Territories (COGAT) Maj. Gen. Yoav Mordechai said in a Facebook post that Hamas members have been using lasers to blind IDF soldiers operating on the border with the Gaza Strip. He said tensions between Israel and Hamas could escalate if the group does not control its fighters.
The warning follows a string of incidents along the Gaza border. Earlier on Wednesday, militants from Hamas-controlled Gaza fired shots toward the border fence with Israel as an Israeli army patrol passed by. There were no casualties or damages as a result of the gunfire. The IDF claims its forces shot back at the source of the gunfire. Palestinian sources say IDF soldiers returned fire on a Hamas post near the border. That incident came days after the IDF destroyed a Hamas observation post on Sunday night, 8 October in retaliation for a rocket that was fired from the southern Gaza Strip at Israeli territory earlier that evening. The IDF fired a mortar that reportedly destroyed a Hamas lookout post in the central Strip, near the border fence. The rocket that was fired toward Israel sparked warning sirens in the Eshkol Regional Council communities next to the Gaza border. No damages or injures were incurred, and it was determined that the rocket fell short of Israeli territory and landed in Gaza.
Sunday's rocket fire was the first since the start of the reconciliation process between Hamas and the Palestinian Authority (PA), which is dominated by the Fatah party and rules in the West Bank. The rivals have been working toward an agreement since Hamas said it would hand over power to a unity government last month. On Thursday, 12 October, Hamas and Fatah leaders inked a preliminary reconciliation deal after intense negotiations in Cairo. While the sides have tried, and failed, to reach reconciliation several times before, the deal is nonetheless a significant breakthrough in Palestinian unity. It was likely made possible due to pressure Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas put on Hamas by stopping salaries to its people and cutting its electricity supply.
Under the emerging agreement, Hamas will hand over responsibilities of governing Gaza to the West Bank-based government of Prime Minister Rami Hamdallah no later than 1 December. Azzam al-Ahmad, head of the Fatah delegation, said the PA would assume control of the crossing points between Gaza and Israel by 1 November. Abbas' presidential guard will also assume control of the Rafah crossing between Gaza and Egypt, although a timetable has not been specified. While Hamas' handover of administrative control is positive, a major spoiler exists over its military units and weapons. Hamas has refused to dismantle its military wing the Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades, although it has assured the Fatah negotiators that the military wing would maintain a low profile as part of any deal. The PA does not recognise the legitimacy of the Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades, and the issue will be discussed in negotiations later this year.
The issue of Hamas' military wing is a major concern for Israel. Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu has insisted on the disbandment of Hamas's armed wing, as well as recognition by Hamas of Israel as a Jewish state. The PA cooperates with Israel on security-related matters, stipulated in the Oslo Accords, and allowing the continuation of the Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades would be an obstacle. If the PA were to accept Hamas' resistance, it is likely that Israel would take retaliatory measures against the PA. Israel also fears that opening Gaza's borders as per the reconciliation deal would help Hamas expand its arsenal and rebuild its military infrastructure. The most recent security incidents emanating from Gaza highlight the continued resistance to Israel from within the Strip despite the progress on reconciliation. Even if Hamas agrees to recognise Israel and renounce its violent resistance, the movement will have difficulty reining in the various other armed groups that are active in the Strip, including those linked to the Islamic State (IS), that are unlikely to align.
It is highly likely that rocket attacks and other provocative measures from Gaza against Israel will continue in the short to medium-term. The attacks are unlikely to claim lives and cause serious property damage; they are primarily used to convey a message of resistance and endurance by the groups responsible for them. As the reconciliation process between Hamas and Fatah proceeds, various Gaza-based armed groups are likely to use attacks into southern Israel in order to undermine Hamas and any unity government. Areas in Israel at high risk for rocket attacks are largely located in the Southern District and within 40km (25 miles) of the Gaza border, including the Sha'ar Hanegev Regional Council, the Hof Ashkelon Regional Council, Eshkol Regional Council, Sderot, Netivot, Beersheba, Ashdod, Eilat, and Ashkelon. Cross-border mortar and sniper fire also generate a threat to safety in the immediate vicinity of the border.
There is also a realistic probability that Netanyahu will become a spoiler to Palestinian unification efforts if his requirements for the recognition of Israel and the disarming of Hamas are not met. It is likely that Israel would refuse to allow reconnection between the West Bank and Gaza by permitting Palestinians freedom of movement. Another likely measure is for Israel to mains the siege and blockade of Gaza, which would prevent reconstruction and development. If residents of Gaza do not experience benefits including improvement in living conditions, it is likely that they would turn against any Hamas-Fatah reconciliation.
Copyright © 2024 Drum Cussac
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