Analysis: Russian Security Forces to Continue to Conduct Periodic Raids Targeting Crimean Tatar Militants
Category: Instability
Severity: 2 (Low)
Source: Drum Cussac
10/13/2017 (Ukraine) - On 11 October, the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) detained six members of the banned radical Islamist group Hizb ut-Tahrir in the Crimean city of Bakhchysaray. The operation came four days after a similar raid conducted by the FSB that saw the detention of four Crimean Tatars suspected of belonging to the banned Tablighi Jamaat movement. The two raids led to localised small scale protests. Local civil society groups claim that the FSB periodically targets activists and members of the Crimean Tatar community opposed to Russia's control of Crimea.
Crimean Tatars make up approximately 12 percent of the population of the Russian-administered peninsula. Since the annexation of Crimea to the Russian Federation in 2014, members of the Crimean Tatar community have been among the most vocal opponents to Moscow. In April 2016, Russia banned the Assembly (Mejlis) of the Crimean Tatar People, a representative body of the Tatar community. Russian authorities stated that the Mejlis was an extremist organisation sponsoring subversive activity. Since then, dozens of Crimean Tatar activists have been detained due to their alleged membership to radical Islamist groups. Ukrainian and EU as well as local civil society groups claim that Moscow uses these detentions to stifle dissent in Crimea. It is highly likely that the FSB will continue to periodically conduct security raids against Crimean Tatar activist networks and Islamic groups.
Russian public officials and security forces periodically issue warning pertaining to potential terrorist plots and subversive activities planned by Crimean Tatar militants. In early September, Russian media reported of potentially aggressive measures taken by Kiev along the border between Ukraine and Russia-administered Crimea. Nationalist militiamen of the Pravyi Sektor (Right Sector) along with units of the Crimean Tatar Battalion had been deployed along the border separating Ukraine from Crimea in a bid to hinder overland travel. Since 2014, several security incidents have occurred in Crimea in relation to tensions sparked by the Russian annexation of the region. A standout incident occurred in November 2015, when Ukrainian far-right nationalists cooperating with Crimean Tatars damaged the electricity network along the Ukraine-Crimea border. This led to a prolonged blackout in the peninsula. In September and October 2015, Crimean Tatars also blocked traffic. The majority of security related incidents pertaining to Ukraine-Russia tensions in regard to Crimea occur along the contested border. Russian authorities are highly likely to continue to closely monitor members of the Crimean Tatar community and issue alerts concerning specific security threats. Ukraine will almost certainly continue to dismiss such warnings and claim they are part of Russian propaganda.
Security operations targeting Crimean Tatar civil society groups, religious organisations and media are likely to lead to periodic localised rounds of unrest in Crimea. Protests linked to the issue are likely to be spontaneous and remain small in size. Any Crimean Tatar rally held in Crimea will almost certainly be heavily policed, and unsanctioned protests may lead to the temporary detention of activists as well as to police using crowd control tactics to disperse participants. Russia is in firm control of Crimea and benefits from the widespread support of the local Russian-ethnic population. As such, any Crimean Tatar protest will almost certainly not lead to any kind of political instability or widespread public unrest.
Given current indicators, Crimean Tatars activists and militants are unlikely to garner substantial support to pose a substantial stability and security threat in Crimea. However, small radical cells cooperating with Ukrainian nationalists may periodically plot terrorist attacks and acts of sabotage. These are likely to continue to mainly target local infrastructure as well as Russian public administration and security personnel. Russian security and intelligence forces will almost certainly continue to closely monitor these groups' activities and conduct counter-terrorist operations in Crimea to mitigate the threat posed by militants opposed to the incorporation of the peninsula within the Russian Federation.
Copyright © 2024 Drum Cussac
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