Analysis: Clashes during Opposition Protest Highlight Likelihood of Periodic Demonstrations in Tbilisi
Category: Unrest
Severity: 2 (Low)
Source: Drum Cussac
10/12/2017 (Georgia) - On Tuesday, 10 October hundreds of opposition activists rallied outside the city council in central Tbilisi. Demonstrators tried to pressure local authorities to let them take part in council's session that was being held to determine if a new development project would be allowed in the centre of the city. Those who attended the rally opposed the construction of a new hotel and parking lots in Tbilisi Liberty Square.
The development project is linked to a construction company associated with Bidzina Ivanishvili, founder of the Georgian Dream party and former prime minister. Police prevented demonstrators from entering the city council and scuffles broke out. Eight protesters were detained. The city council approved the construction project despite the protests.
The protest comes as a reminder of inter-party political tensions in Georgia. The ruling Georgian Dream party has had 115 out of 150 seats in parliament since the October 2016 general elections. Members of the Movement for Liberty - European Georgia, supporters of the former United National Movement and of former Prime Minister Mikhail Saakashvili periodically stage protests. Most inter-party rifts are linked to attempts by the opposition to gain leverage over the ruling party as well as socio-economic tensions. However, the Georgian Dream party has a strong majority and it is highly likely that it will remain the ruling party until the 2020 general elections. Indeed, periodic protests are unlikely to result in the collapse of government and mass unrest is unlikely based on current indicators.
Protests in Tbilisi are generally peaceful and are unlikely to threaten life and property. However, participants periodically clash with police and security forces can use tear gas and batons to disperse crowds. Most protests in the capital occur in the Liberty Square area and in front of the city council building. The main triggers for demonstrations in Tbilisi are socio-economic issues linked to poor standard of living and public services, corruption scandals involving nepotism and clientelism cases, as well as international developments, especially those linked to Georgia relations with Russia.
Localised protests are likely to continue to occur in the centre of Tbilisi. There is a realistic possibility that the approval of the construction of a new hotel and parking lots in city's Liberty Square will prompt additional opposition rallies. Those opposed to Ivanishvili's influence as well as environmentalists and civil society groups will probably oppose the move. These protests are unlikely to result in major disturbances in the city and political risk outlook will almost certainly remain stable in the six-month outlook.
Copyright © 2024 Drum Cussac
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