Analysis: EU Considers Reopening Embassy Pending Improvement in Security, Various Spoilers to Challenge Progress
Category: Conflict
Severity: 4 (High)
Source: Drum Cussac
10/12/2017 (Libya) - The European Union (EU) is reportedly considering reopening its embassy in Libya pending security conditions, officials said on Tuesday, 10 October. EU leaders plan to announce their intention to work toward establishing a "permanent EU presence in Libya" at their summit in Brussels from 19 to 20 October. The move will not be imminent and would be conditional on an improvement in security on the ground. Officials plan to continue to offer political support for the UN-backed government in Tripoli.
Reopening the EU embassy would be an indicator of positive momentum on Libya's security environment, which has been marred by three years of civil conflict. The conflict has been mostly between the militias linked to Tobruk-based House of Representatives (HoR) that was elected democratically in 2014, and the UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA), based in Tripoli. The West has supported Prime Minister Fayez Mustafa Sarraj and the GNA, although he was unsuccessful in winning the approval of parliament and legitimacy for many armed groups in the east. Field Marshal Haftar's self-declared Libyan National Army (LNA), which is allied with the HoR and controls more than two-thirds of the country, has refused to recognise the authority of GNA. Most foreign embassies in Libya closed by mid-year 2014 due to violence between rival armed groups in the country. Of 28 EU states, only Italy has an embassy in the country, reopened in January this year.
There has been some political progress in recent months with both sides signing a ceasefire on 25 July and agreeing to hold presidential and parliamentary polls, likely in March 2018. However, both sides have since played down the agreement. Meanwhile, Haftar has been open about his willingness to use force against rivals in Tripoli, saying on multiple occasions that he would take Tripoli and exact law and order. In an interview with Swiss German-Language newspaper Neuen Zürcher Zeitung this week, military chief of staff for the HoR, Abdelrazik Al-Nadori, vowed to march with 35.000 fighters to Tripoli and liberate it from "militias." Such statements will likely elevate tensions between the two sides and further cement the belief among many in the west that Haftar intends to become a military dictator. Any plan that involves Haftar in power is likely to trigger further fractures between and among Libya's assorted militia coalitions.
Tripoli also continues to suffer from clashes between the various militia groups in the city, highlighting the lack of political and security control held by Sarraj. Armed clashes between rival militia brigades on 6 October resulted in the death of four people and injury of 15 others. The fighting took place in Tripoli's Arada neighbourhood between fighters linked to the Support Brigade 42, based in the Ein Zara neighbourhood, and the Abdul-Raoaf al-Jabari Brigade, based in Arada. The reason behind the clashes was not immediately made clear, although fighting often results from territorial and personal disputes.
Another spoiler comes from Islamist militants. The Islamic State (IS) has been regrouping in areas south of Sirte following its removal from the coastal city in a military operation last December. The group claimed responsibility for a suicide attack on 4 October that targeted the main courthouse in Misrata, killing at least four and wounding 40 others. On 24 August, IS claimed responsibility for an attack in which 11 people were beheaded at a checkpoint manned by the LNA, It is highly likely that the senior leadership of IS will take advantage of continued political instability to search for territory and cultivate support networks. Militants will almost certainly continue to plot attacks from new training grounds.
While Libya has experienced some positive momentum in recent months, including the ceasefire and plans for elections, it is highly likely that insecurity and instability in Libya will persist through the medium term. The ability for both sides to compromise will be tested during upcoming negotiation meetings between the rivals. The role of Haftar in a future political settlement remains a main potential spoiler around which further violence is likely to occur. Clashes between rival armed groups, acts of sabotage and terrorist violence are highly likely in the coming months. Even if a political agreement is reached, it will take time to provide the right incentives to rein in the various militia groups on the ground which are primarily concerned with their own interests and continue to seek leverage aimed at improving their own positions. Despite the long-term challenges, the reopening of foreign embassies would be a positive indicator of the security situation and suggest improvement on the ground.
Copyright © 2024 Drum Cussac
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