Analysis: Wilayat Sinai Attacks and Threats Indicate Increased Cargo Risks in North Sinai
Category: Terrorism
Severity: 3 (Moderate)
Source: Drum Cussac
10/11/2017 (Egypt) - Islamic State's (IS) Egyptian affiliate Wilayat Sinai, or Sinai Province, claimed a suicide bomb attack that targeted the Egyptian Army in North Sinai. A statement issued by Wilayat Sinai said a suicide vehicle-borne improvised explosive device (SVBIED) destroyed a military checkpoint at a cement factory, killing and injuring several Egyptian military personnel. Following the bombing, Wilayat Sinai's statement added that gunmen killed those still alive and destroyed three vehicles. Egyptian media had a different account of the incident, saying security forces had foiled a SVBIED attack on the checkpoint.
The attack took place after Wilayat Sinai had warned drivers against transporting cement from the factory and threatened to destroy their vehicles. On 27 September, militants stopped four trucks near the El-Arish Cement factory. The trucks were set alight, but the drivers were released unharmed. Two days later, militants attacked the cement factory itself. On 1 October, heavy engineering vehicles were set on fire in central Sinai and the drivers were let go. Meanwhile, workers on the Shahid Ahmed Hamdi Tunnel road along the border with the South Sinai governorate have allegedly been threatened if they continue to work on construction projects. There have been at least five separate attacks on vehicles transporting military-produced materials since late August 2017, indicating that Wilayat Sinai is increasingly targeting vital economic centres in North Sinai.
Indeed, the motivation for the raids appears to have been to undermine the military's economic interests. Construction convoys are rarely provided with a military escort and are vulnerable to ambush along remote desert roads. It is highly likely that this, coupled with the failure of the Egyptian government to build a counter-insurgency strategy capable of reducing Wilayat Sinai's influence, has led to an increase in terrorism and cargo risks in North Sinai. It is likely that Wilayat Sinai hopes to discourage economic development in the North Sinai because unemployed locals will be more vulnerable to recruitment. Such attacks are also likely designed to compel security forces to defend economic interests with a greater proportion of strength than desired, which will increase the risk of Wilayat Sinai achieving freedom of movement elsewhere.
It is almost certain that El-Arish, Rafah, Sheikh Zuwayid will remain a focal point for insurgent activity in the six-month outlook. The primary threat to life and property is from large-scale IED attacks against commercial, economic, infrastructure targets, Christian minorities, and security forces. Cargo, including fuel, food, and commercial goods, is vulnerable to hijacking on the El-Arish-Hasna road to Nekhel, and the northern road from Bir al-Abd to El-Arish. The threat against Western interests will likely remain elevated, which will affect security in Cairo, Giza, the Nile Delta, as well near tourist sites in Sharm el-Sheikh. It is likely that Wilayat Sinai will aspire to target high-profile Western assets like businesses and hotels which are seen to contribute to state revenue, in addition to any embassies considered to be supporting the Egyptian government.
Copyright © 2024 Drum Cussac
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