Analysis: Seizure of Boats Likely to Stoke Diplomatic Tensions between Bahrain and Qatar
Category: Instability
Severity: 2 (Low)
Source: Drum Cussac
09/21/2017 (Qatar) - On Monday, 18 September Bahrain accused Qatar of illegally seizing three boats and the 16 sailors on board over the previous two days. No details were given on the boats or where they were seized. Bahraini Coast Guard commander Commodore Ala'a Siyadi said this raises the number of boats seized by Qatar to 15 and the number of sailors in its custody to 20. Some of the incidents go back to 2009. Qatar confirmed detaining the fishing boats, claiming they had trespassed its territorial waters illegally. Qatar's Coast and Borders Security Department claims to have repeatedly warned the fishermen not to operate in Qatari waters and not to use harmful fishing practices. An official source at Qatar's Interior Ministry said the sailors will be released within three days and a court will decide what will happen to the boats.
The situation is likely to exacerbate tense diplomatic relations between Bahrain and Qatar. On 19 September, Qatar accused Bahrain of using a routine fisheries enforcement case to stoke tensions. Qatar has been embroiled in a diplomatic row with Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Egypt, since June this year. The Saudi-led alliance severed ties with Qatar, accusing Doha of supporting terrorism and interfering in the internal affairs of other countries. Qatar has denied the allegations and refused to meet a list of 13 demands the alliance issued that included cutting links to the Muslim Brotherhood, expelling several Islamists, closing the state-funded broadcaster al-Jazeera, and making reparation payments. Doha has accused the Saudi-led alliance of undermining its sovereignty by forcing it to align with the political and economic policies of the other Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states.
Indeed, Qatar has given little indication that it intends to capitulate to the Saudi-led quartet's demands. On 23 August, Qatar's Foreign Ministry announced that it will return its ambassador to Iran, a move that was likely intended to underscore the nation's defiance. One of the demands included scaling back contact with Iran, and it is likely that the reopening of diplomatic ties between Doha and Tehran means Qatar not only does not intend to comply but also aims to increase its ties with Saudi's regional rival. Several attempts at international mediation have resulted in little progress toward a resolution. US President Donald Trump met with Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani, the emir of Qatar, on 19 September to discuss the crisis. While Trump has predicted a quick resolution, the Saudi-led embargo on Qatar is likely to be protracted, potentially lasting into 2018.
The seizure of the fishing boats also likely tapped into simmering tensions between Bahrain and Qatar linked to a territorial dispute over the waters and several islands located between the two countries. In the 1980s Bahrain established a military presence on one of the territories, Hawar Island, which Qatar said was a violation of their agreement to maintain the status quo. The situation escalated when Qatar began deploying troops on the island to stand off against Bahraini forces, although the potential for military conflict was deflated with the intervention of the international community. In 2001, the International Court of Justice in The Hague gave each country control of equal parts of the disputed territories, but tensions still remain high over the issue.
It is unlikely that conflict would result from any of the issues that are contributing to tensions between Qatar and its neighbours. However, as the situation persists, Bahrain and the rest of the quartet are likely to take further punitive measures against Qatar. At this time, the most likely scenario is that sanctions on Qatar will become permanent, and the tiny Gulf nation will be ostracised. There is a realistic possibility that Saudi and its allies will also seek to impose sanctions on countries that continue to trade with Qatar. There is a high likelihood that Saudi Arabia and the UAE will take steps to expel Qatar from the six-member GCC, the regional trading bloc, and/or suspend its membership in the Arab League. The recent realignment of regional blocs with Qatar becoming closer to Iran and also Turkey will also provide Doha with backing and support throughout the boycott.
Copyright © 2024 Drum Cussac
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