Analysis: Measures Aimed at Preventing Catalonia's Separatist Referendum Likely to Lead to Further Political Polarisation
Category: Instability
Severity: 3 (Moderate)
Source: Drum Cussac
09/21/2017 (Spain) - On Wednesday, 20 September, Spanish police targeted several Catalan institutions as part of operations aimed at preventing the region from holding a controversial independence referendum. Police conducted raids against the economy, foreign affairs, telecommunication and social affairs regional ministries as well as the regional presidency building. These operations led to the detention of 13 officials, including Josep Maria Jové, secretary-general of the Catalan vice-presidency. Police operations also led to the seizure of more than 2 million leaflets and voting ballots that were meant for use during the referendum. A similar operation resulted in the seizure of 1.3 million prints on 17 September. According to the Financial Times, police have so far seized close to 10 million leaflets and ballots that were supposed to be used in the referendum.
The aforementioned police operations come against the backdrop of severe political tensions pitting the central Spanish government against the Catalan regional authorities. The relation between the Madrid and Barcelona has substantially deteriorated since 6 September when the Catalan parliament voted in favour of holding an independence referendum on 1 October. Given current indicators, approximately 49 percent of the region's population does not support the separatist push while only about 41 percent are in favour of the independence of Catalonia. However, there is a realistic possibility that the 1 October referendum will have a weak turnout of approximately 50 percent. In such a scenario, it is likely that pro-independence activists would vote in higher volumes thus enabling separatist parties to claim a victory at the ballots. The Catalan separatist leadership stated that they would issue a declaration of independence 48 hours after a vote in favour of independence.
Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy and the Spanish government are strongly opposed to the Catalan independence referendum. In early September, the Spanish constitutional court suspended the referendum and the Spanish government views the proceedings as unconstitutional. Since then, a criminal investigation has been opened for 712 Catalan mayors believed to be supporting the referendum. Spain's Minister of Finance, Luis de Guindos, also threatened to cut key Spanish subsidies to Catalonia should they decide to go forward with the referendum. At this juncture, it is highly likely that Catalan regional authorities will try to go forward with the referendum, making it almost certain that Madrid will implement additional economic and political sanctions against Catalonia in the coming weeks.
The current political tensions and police raids are likely to lead to polarisation of the social and political situation in Catalonia. It is probable that actions taken by Madrid to hinder the organisation of the referendum will solidify the local separatist power base. There is a realistic possibility that pro-referendum rallies will be held in Barcelona and throughout Catalonia in the coming weeks. While these are likely to be peaceful, there is a realistic risk of localised scuffles pitting participants against police. There is also a low risk of smaller counter-demonstrations organised by civil society groups opposed to Catalonia's independence.
Copyright © 2024 Drum Cussac
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