Analysis: Pro-Kurdish Parties and Civil Society Groups Likely to Conduct Further Protests
Category: Unrest
Severity: 3 (Moderate)
Source: Drum Cussac
09/20/2017 (Turkey) - The People's Democratic Party (HDP) held a large-scale rally in the centre of Diyarbakir on Monday, 18 September. The demonstration was organised to protest against what the HDP claims to be a campaign led by the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) to weaken the opposition and pro-Kurdish party. The organisers vowed to continue staging protests in Diyarbakir, Izmir, Istanbul and Van in a bid to maintain strong opposition to what they consider authoritarian policies enacted by the AKP. The Diyarbakir protest was conducted peacefully and did not result in any scuffle.
Since 2016, the HDP has increasingly accused the AKP of targeting the party with the objective of weakening its weight in parliament. As part of the ongoing post-coup crackdown and anti-terrorist operations, ten HDP members of parliament, including the party co-chairs Selahatting Demirtas and Figen Yuksekdag, have been detained due to their alleged support of Kurdish separatist groups. In addition, three other HDP members of parliament are currently in exile. Personnel with ties to the HDP, including lawyers, have been detained. This greatly hinders the communication and organisational structure of the party. It also substantially weakens its standing in the Turkish parliament. The June 2015 elections saw the HDP obtain 58 of the 550 seats at the Turkish Grand Assembly. It is highly likely that HDP supporters will continue to protest against measures perceived as attempts by the AKP to weaken the party.
It is highly likely that further opposition and pro-Kurdish protests will occur in Turkey in the short-term. These will almost certainly take place in areas with sizeable Kurdish communities including major cities in south-eastern Turkey as well as Gaziantep, Izmir and Istanbul. While the majority of these events are peaceful, opposition and pro-Kurdish rallies are generally heavily policed and this may result in periodic scuffles between participants and security forces. Given the government's low acceptance for public disorder, it is probable that police will use crowd control tactics to disperse unsanctioned pro-Kurdish rallies. Police are likely to use water cannons, tear gas and rubber bullets, increasing the risk of localised clashes and incidental exposure to violence.
Tensions associated with pro-Kurdish political rallies generate a moderate risk of violence. There is a realistic possibility that AKP-supporters as well as Turkish nationalists will sporadically assault HDP supporters as well as party offices. On 13 September a crowd assaulted the funeral of the mother a pro-Kurdish politician. The gatherings of HDP and other Kurdish organisations also face a credible terrorist threat. The Islamic State (IS) has conducted three major bombings targeting pro-Kurdish rallies. These respectively occurred in Diyarbarkir (June 2015), Suruc (July 2015) and Gaziantep (August 2016) and left in aggregate approximately 95 dead and 240 injured. It is probable that in the coming 12-month period IS militants will try to conduct additional attacks targeting Kurdish social and political events and rallies.
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