Analysis: Explosion on London Train Underscores Elevated Risk of Attacks on Soft Targets
Category: Terrorism
Severity: 3 (Moderate)
Source: Drum Cussac
09/15/2017 (United Kingdom) - An improvised explosive device (IED) was detonated on a Tube train in south-west London on the morning of Friday, 15 September. The authorities are treating the blast at Parsons Green station as an act of terrorism. Twenty-two people were injured. The Metropolitan Police said most of the injuries were "flash burns", although some may have been caused by the subsequent stampede to flee the train and the station. None of the injuries were classified as serious or life threatening.
In the hours following the attack, the UK terror threat level remained unchanged at severe, the second highest, which means that an attack is highly likely but not imminent. The blast comes as the UK remains on high alert after a series of terror attacks this year. Pictures in local media showed an IED comprising of a white bucket inside a supermarket cooler bag, with wires trailing on to the carriage floor. There were no signs of catastrophic injuries or structural damage to the carriage, indicating that the IED probably failed to ignite properly. At the time of writing, no one or group claimed responsibility for the attack. Online supporters of Islamic State (IS) have shared mainstream media reports about the explosion, without offering any original information or comment.
There was no information of the nature of the explosives used. Previous militant Islamist attacks - including the 7 July 2005 attacks on the London transport system, the 13 November 2015 attacks in Paris, the 22 March 2016 attacks in Brussels, and the 22 May 2017 attack in Manchester - have used the explosive TATP, which is highly unstable and prone to failure. TATP is typically used because it can be made using commonly available chemicals such as sulphuric acid, which is used to clean drains, and hydrogen peroxide, which is used in hair dyes, and acetone. While the IED on the tube train in south-west London failed to detonate successfully, the construct of the device indicates a certain capability and apparent training.
Though the Metropolitan Police did not provide any details of suspects or indications of a wider network involved in the explosion, the incident comes in the context where IS is continuously losing territory in Iraq and Syria, and al-Qaeda is looking to inspire attacks to compete with IS. Both Islamist militant groups are calling for supporters based in the West to conduct attacks in their home countries. Police will also probably be considering if the attack was carried out by a lone, unaffiliated individual with a fixation of guns, explosives and other weapons. A student with mental health issues failed to detonate an IED on a Tube train in south-east London in October 2016, highlighting the diverse range of terrorist threats in the UK.
The Metropolitan Police have announced they have raised their readiness across London. Armed police are likely to be seen in public, especially in busy shopping areas, airports, Tube and railway stations. Heightened sensitivity among the public to suspicious individuals, activities or objects will likely to trigger security alerts, causing evacuations of transport hubs and other public areas. Further low-capability terror attacks are a realistic possibility in the six-month outlook. Soft targets such as transport hubs, music and sports venues, restaurants and cafés, shopping centres or public spaces near tourist attractions or in city centres are probably most at risk. Other prime targets include individual members of the military, police or politicians.
Copyright © 2024 Drum Cussac
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